The summer of soccer will reach a fever pitch this week with the opening match of Copa America, a 16-team tournament featuring countries from North, South and Central America.
Argentina, the reigning World Cup champions, is the betting favorite at +175 at BetMGM.
Brazil is the second-choice at +225 and Uruguay is next up at +500.
USA, Mexico and Colombia are all 12/1, with Ecuador (16/1) and Chile (33/1) the only other teams listed below 35/1.
Team USA’s draw
The first thing to note about this tournament is that the draw is unbalanced.
Argentina is the only true heavyweight in the top half of the bracket and it would be a shock if they don’t make it to the final considering their path.
It is the overwhelming favorite to win Group A over Chile, Peru and Canada, and should have no problems with whoever comes out of Group B (Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela and Jamaica).
The bottom half of the bracket is a completely different story. Brazil, Colombia, USA and Uruguay are expected to make it to the quarterfinals, but it will be a gauntlet from that point forward as Brazil is projected to play the Yanks in the quarters and Uruguay is likely to face Colombia.
That really takes a bite out of the value on any of the teams in the bottom half of the draw.
That said, there still is a way to back the Stars & Stripes …
Best way to bet the USA: Christian Pulisic to win the Golden Boot (50/1, Bet365)
The USMNT has been desperate for a reliable striker for years, but it seems like the team solved that issue with the arrival of Folarin Balogun.
However, this is the first major international tournament for the Bronx-born wunderkind and it’s no guarantee he will get the most opportunity to lead the line.
What we do know is that the Yanks will rely heavily on Pulisic to be an attacking threat as long as it’s in the tournament.
With a couple of soft games on the schedule, including the opener with Bolivia, Pulisic (42/1, FanDuel) should have plenty of chances to pad his goal total before we get into the business end of the tournament.
Best value on the entire board: Luis Diaz to win the Golden Boot (35/1, FanDuel)
The Golden Boot market for the Copa is bizarre.
I’ve never seen anything like it.
Eight of the top-10 favorites coming from either Argentina or Brazil.
While that tells us that the winner is very likely to come from one of those two teams, it also suggests the goals will be spread around and that would leave the door open for someone from another country to crash the party.
While the likeliest option would be the third-favorite, Darwin Nunez of Uruguay, there is heaps of value on his Liverpool teammate Luis Diaz at nearly seven times the price.
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Best long shot: Canada (80/1, BetMGM)
It won’t be easy for Canada to get out of Group A and it’ll likely be behind the 8-ball right away since they open the tournament against Argentina, but the Maple Leafs have much more talent in their ranks than these odds suggest.
Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies are stars and the arrival of Jesse Marsch as manager adds some intrigue for this group.
Marsch will want the Canadians to play a high-octane brand of soccer and that could throw a cat among the pigeons against three South American sides in Group A that won’t be used to coping with that style of play.
If Canada can get out of Group A, they will have a very manageable quarterfinal matchup against an opponent from Group B (Mexico, Ecuador, Venezuela and Jamaica) and would then have a legitimate chance to make it to the semifinals.