TUCSON, Ariz. – Incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is leading in the race to win one of the most competitive districts in the entire country, a new survey shows — with voters ranking abortion low on their issues list.
An internal Public Opinion Strategies poll first obtained by The Post puts the Mexican-American freshman congressman at 50%, an 11-point lead over former Democratic state Sen. Kirsten Engel, who’s at 39%.
“Juan’s message of the American Dream is resonating among all Arizonans, Republican, Democrat and independent,” Daniel Scarpinato, Ciscomani for Congress’ general consultant, told The Post.
“We are encouraged by these incredibly strong numbers early in the race, but we also know national Democrats will stop at nothing to prop up Engel and her extreme positions on immigration and the economy.”
The survey talked to 300 registered voters from May 28 to 30, primarily over the phone. It has a 5.66% margin of error.
In the contest for the White House, former President Donald Trump’s lead is smaller than Ciscomani’s — 49% to 45% when head to head with President Biden among the same crop of voters.
Of those polled, 40% were Republican, 36% were Democratic and 22% were independents.
The questions for both the congressional race and the presidential race were phrased as if the election were held today.
Ciscomani narrowly won the district 51% to 49% in 2022.
He faces GOP challenger Kathleen Winn in the July 30 primary.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks the 6th Congressional District race a “toss-up,” a change from “lean Republican” in April as the state faced scrutiny over an Arizona Supreme Court ruling allowing a near-total ban on abortion to become enforceable.
The law ended up being repealed, but abortion will still be a top issue in November with a ballot initiative putting abortion access into the state’s Constitution on the table.
“Juan Ciscomani has an extremely unpopular anti-abortion record and has been actively working against the best interest of Arizonans in Congress,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Lauryn Fanguen said in response to the poll.
“When voters hear about his votes to take away their reproductive rights and willingness to play partisan politics with the border, they will reject him and his far-right agenda.”
In the internal poll, voters’ top issues were inflation at 25% and immigration and border security at 19%.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District contains parts of the southern border, including several communities close to the ongoing crisis.
Nine percent of those polled stated abortion as a top issue.