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Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals Game 1 prediction: Take the points in series opener

By
Social Links for Andrew Norton, Action Network
Published June 6, 2024, 4:30 p.m. ET
The Celtics seem destined to win the NBA Finals this season.
The Celtics are 6.5-point favorites against the Mavericks in Game 1. AP

Only twice has a team won an NBA championship as a non-top-three seed.

And no team has ever won an NBA Finals as a No. 5 seed.

But the fifth-seeded Mavericks are dangerous behind the two-headed offensive monster of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and Thursday’s Game 1 will be pivotal to their chances of upsetting the top-seeded Celtics — who are large favorites (-225, bet365) to win the series.

The Celtics seem destined to win the NBA Finals this season, thanks to their endless arsenal of offensive firepower and defensive prowess.

However, that doesn’t mean Dallas can’t steal a few games.

Much of the Mavericks’ success this postseason can be attributed to taking what the defense has given them, which has been a ton of looks in the midrange.

And they have been hitting those shots at an efficient clip.

Between 17 feet and just inside the 3-point arc, Doncic and Irving are shooting 65.2 percent and 66.7 percent, respectively, in the postseason.

While there might be some regression to those mind-boggling percentages, Doncic and Irving should continue to do damage considering what the Pacers were able to do to Boston in the midrange.

Luka Doncic is trying to lead to Mavericks to an upset win over the Celtics.
Luka Doncic is trying to lead to Mavericks to an upset win over the Celtics. Getty Images

Additionally, the Mavericks have been superb on the road in the playoffs, winning seven of their nine games and boasting a net rating of +4.4.

Boston has been relatively hit or miss on its home floor this postseason.

Ultimately, Dallas will force Boston to make tough decisions, especially in Game 1.

Do the C’s step up and contest those midrange shots, hoping that the back-side help will cover the lob, or do they allow Doncic and Irving to continue to take those looks?

Betting on the NBA?

Boston could be rusty due to the week and a half off since its last game.

Factor in the inevitable wrench Jason Kidd will throw into the series, and Game 1 looks like an excellent spot to take the points with the underdog.

The play: Mavericks +6.5 (-106, FanDuel)