Muirfield Village, site of this week’s Memorial Tournament, is a par-72 that measures a whopping 7,569 yards.
Since the course’s renovation in 2020, it has played as one of the 10 most-difficult on tour in each of the last three years.
The fairways are narrow and tree-lined, the rough is four inches thick and tough to play out of, the greens are small and difficult to hit in regulation and water is in play on 13 of the 18 holes.
Generally, the more difficult the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes.
If placing less of an emphasis on one of the four strokes gained categories this week, it would have to be putting.
Scottie Scheffler was one shot away from the playoff at last year’s event and lost 8.5 strokes putting for the week.
As is the case with most Jack Nicklaus designs, Muirfield is more of a second-shot course. The greens are small and tiered, which places a major emphasis on iron play.
Last year, golfers were only able to hit 52 percent of greens in regulation. Even though there aren’t a lot of tight lies around the greens, golfers will need to get up and down often.
In terms of the key statistics for the week, I am focusing on total driving, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green and bogey avoidance.
I am also taking a deep look at course history, success on long and difficult courses and success in strong fields.
Here are some best bets to win the Memorial.
Patrick Cantlay to win (25/1, DraftKings)
I thought about making Scottie Scheffler (+375) my only outright bet of the week, but I decided to place a hefty top-five wager on him instead and take my chances with a few longer shots like Cantlay.
To put it kindly, Cantlay has underwhelmed so far this season.
His strokes-gained numbers are all below his three-year baseline numbers, but I’m still encouraged about his chances this week.
He has contended twice this year and both times they were on courses he plays well every year (Riviera Country Club and Harbour Town).
The only course he loves more than those two is Muirfield Village. In seven appearances here, he has two wins and two more top-five finishes.
Sahith Theegala to win (55/1, FanDuel)
Theegala is coming off a missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open, but we can forgive him for one bad performance.
The transformation of his game has been fun to watch.
He was more of a short-game specialist at the start of his career but has now turned into an excellent ball-striker.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s ninth in this field in strokes gained ball-striking.
He typically is lights-out with the putter and he already has five top-10 finishes this year.
He’s played well on difficult courses, has a good track record on Nicklaus designs, and has made the cut in each of his three appearances at the Memorial with a fifth-place finish in 2022.
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Si Woo Kim to win (60/1, FanDuel)
Remarkably, Kim has gained strokes off the tee in 31 of his last 32 events and has gained strokes on approach in 12 of his last 13.
He’s currently sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green this season.
Putting matters less on these extremely difficult courses, which should be music to Kim’s ears.
He’s ranked 163 this season on average strokes gained on the green.
He’s one good putting week away from contending in a tournament.
Perhaps it’ll happen this week at Muirfield Village where he has rattled off four straight top-20 finishes.