Betting

Yankees vs. Twins prediction: Why we’re backing Luis Gil on Tuesday

The Yankees are arguably the best team in baseball, sporting the league’s best record (42-19) and run differential (+107). 

Part of that is because the rotation has stepped up in Gerrit Cole’s absence, including Tuesday’s starter, Luis Gil. 

Gil sports a 1.99 ERA and a 32 percent strikeout rate through 11 outings this season. He has allowed only three earned runs across his past six starts, striking out 44 batters during the stretch. 

He’s leaned into his changeup more, which generates plenty of weak contact.

Meanwhile, his fastball-slider combination is nearly unhittable, with a combined whiff rate nearing 35 percent. 

I think he’ll carve up an average Minnesota lineup (100 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season).

Yankees vs. Twins prediction 

(7:05 p.m. ET, YES)

The other part of New York’s dominance is its obscene production against right-handed pitching. The Bombers have posted a 145 wRC+ against righties over the past month, a full 19 points higher than the second-best team. 

Aaron Judge is slugging .670 with a 1.062 OPS against right-handed pitching this year. Juan Soto boasts a 1.039 OPS against the side.

Carlos Correa leads the Twins offense opposite Luiis Gil.
Carlos Correa leads the Twins offense opposite Luiis Gil. Getty Images

Many of the Yanks’ depth pieces — Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera, Giancarlo Stanton — hit much better against right-handed pitching. 

They should mash Minnesota starting pitcher Bailey Ober, who boasts an ERA pushing 5.00 on the year, including a 5.52 mark in 31 road innings. 


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I believe the Yankees bullpen’ is vastly overvalued, and the Twins relievers have been red-hot. But I feel comfortable putting my money behind Gil and against Ober in the first half Tuesday. 

THE PLAY: Yankees F5 ML (-180, DraftKings)