The 2024 NBA Finals, which tip off with Game 1 on Thursday, feature the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics.
Let’s break down NBA Finals props, including which player will score the most points and which one will secure the coveted NBA Finals MVP.
NBA Finals MVP
With Kristaps Porzingis back from injury, the Celtics will not have to worry about their defensive shortcomings on the interior, which nearly cost them several games, particularly against the Indiana Pacers. Porzingis’s ability to protect the rim and play elite drop coverage in the pick-and-roll will cause some problems for the lob-reliant Mavericks.
Ultimately, Boston should take this series in five or six games. The Celtics are an elite road team, boasting a 6-0 record away from TD Garden in this year’s playoffs. Now that they are completely healthy, they should bulldoze the Mavs, similar to their two meetings in the regular season.
If history tells us anything, the winning team of the NBA Finals will have a player awarded the NBA Finals MVP. Jerry West is the only player to win the Finals MVP (1969) despite his team losing.
Thus, Boston will likely roster this year’s NBA Finals MVP. Will it be Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown or someone else?
All signs point to Tatum securing his first NBA Finals MVP award this year; he has led his team in points (26.0), rebounds (10.4) and assists (5.9) this postseason.
His all-around offensive game and massive presence on the glass give him an inherent advantage over other players, as he will stuff the stat sheet in every game, including ones in which he is not shooting well.
Tatum has also had his way with Dallas recently, averaging 31.7 points, 11.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in his past six outings against the Mavericks.
Dallas has defended small forwards much better than power forwards this season, which is not great news for Brown, who is deployed at the three in the C’s starting lineup.
In fact, the Mavs hold opposing small forwards to the second-fewest points of any team in the NBA while allowing opposing power forwards (Tatum) to post the ninth-most points and dish out the fifth-most assists per game.
Best bet: Jayson Tatum to win Finals MVP (-120, ESPN Bet)
NBA Finals top scorer
Luka Doncic is the far-and-away favorite (-205, DraftKings) to be the top scorer, and rightfully so. He is the second-leading scorer in playoff points per game (31.4) in NBA history, behind only Michael Jordan.
Double teams don’t work on Doncic, and the array of obstacles in his way this postseason, including sickness and minor knee and ankle injuries, has hardly slowed him down.
Further, Boston benefits from having five players (Porzingis, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Brown and Tatum) who could lead the team in scoring on any given night. That is a large part of what makes the Celtics so incredibly dangerous. However, it won’t help them have anyone outscore Doncic throughout an entire series.
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Doncic has Kyrie Irving, who could explode for a 30-point night in one or two games. However, he has not come close to leading any of the Mavericks’ previous series in total points, so there is no reason to believe that will change in this spot, especially with two of the best point-of-attack defenders in the NBA (Holiday and White) hounding him.
Holiday and White will also help defend Doncic, but the Mavericks guard has a considerable size advantage over them.
Heavy favorites are hardly attractive, but this is an exception.
Best bet: Series total points leader: Luka Doncic (-205, DraftKings)