The NBA Finals are set, and some of the biggest names in basketball will be competing for the series MVP award.
Jayson Tatum, the best player on the favored Celtics, is the early favorite to win the award, sitting at -120 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
He’s followed by Luka Doncic of the underdog Mavericks, who is +215.
Doncic, the Magic Johnson Trophy winner during Dallas’ five-game Western Conference finals win over the Timberwolves, will almost certainly be at the center of a series upset over Boston.
Larry Bird Trophy winner Jaylen Brown (+600) will look to win his second straight series MVP.
Brown swooped in to steal the East Finals MVP with a fourth-quarter flurry in Game 4 to send the Celtics to the NBA Finals, shocking oddsmakers, bettors and even Brown, who assumed the award was Tatum’s to lose.
Kyrie Irving is the only other player oddsmakers assume has a realistic shot at the award at 20/1 odds.
Irving served as the Robin to Doncic’s Batman, averaging 27 points and 4.6 assists per game versus the Timeberwolves.
With that, here’s a look at where I think there’s value when betting on the NBA Finals MVP.
First, I’m shying away from any Celtics players.
Tatum and Brown are the favorites, but Boston’s deep roster leaves the door open for a long shot to take the trophy.
Remember, there was a moment early in the series when Jrue Holiday was climbing the East Finals MVP oddsboard, and Kristaps Porzingis, arguably as important a player for the Celtics as any, is likely to make his return from injury in Game 1.
That leaves Doncic and Irving.
While Irving has had plenty of big moments on the big stage, it’s hard to see how he can outshine Doncic in a potential Mavericks series win.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
Irving may outscore him, but Doncic will always have more assists and rebounds, leaving a statistical case for Irving out of the picture.
And while Dallas will need a big series from Irving to win the Finals, there’s virtually no shot the Mavericks take down the Celtics without a dominant series from Doncic.
Take Doncic at +215 odds, which is slightly better than odds than you’ll get taking the Mavericks straight-up in the series.
The play: Luka Doncic to win NBA Finals MVP (+215, Caesars)