It will be a highly anticipated NBA Finals matchup between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks beginning June 6.
The Celtics come in as moderate -210 favorites at DraftKings, having run through the NBA up until this point. They posted the league’s best regular-season record and have benefitted from a rather easy playoff run thanks to injuries.
There’s plenty to look at here, notably Luka Doncic profiling as the best player on either team but the Mavericks still being a decent-sized underdog at +180 odds.
Kyrie Irving also returns to TD Garden, a place he used to call home in Boston.
But as Fansided’s Reed Wallach points out, Irving is 0-10 against the Celtics since his contentious departure, while shooting 42 percent on field goals and just 29 percent from 3-point range.
He figures to have several extremely challenging matchups in front of him as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White project to hound him every second of every game.
The same goes for Doncic, who will be forced to contend with the defensive prowess of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum.
There is some projected value for the Celtics in this matchup and -210 seems like a fair price. I expect Boston to win this series but it could be a long one.
Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals prediction
In the Pacers vs. Celtics series preview, we bet on Holiday to lead the series in 3-pointers made at 100/1. It missed by one 3-pointer made, with Holiday hitting 10 while Tatum had 11. So close.
There’s no value in Holiday to lead the NBA Finals in 3-pointers made prop this time, coming in at 30/1 odds.
You may remember in Game 1 between the Celtics and Pacers, I faded Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton, and Pascal Siakam’s steals and blocks props, which won at an incredible rate because the Celtics rarely have shots blocked and don’t turn it over.
The same can be said for this series, although the Mavericks were a bit more competent at holding onto the ball than the Pacers were in the regular season.
Boston allows its opponents to snatch 4.9 steals per game in the playoffs, while the Mavericks have allowed opponents to steal the ball 7.0 times per game.
Doncic is a huge part of this. He turns the ball over four times per game, by far the most on the team.
Brown is his expected matchup and is the favorite to lead the series in steals at +350, rightfully so, considering he also averages the most steals per game.
However, Brown was matched up with Doncic for 11:15 minutes in the regular season this year.
Brown did not force a turnover from Doncic in that time, with the Mavericks star shooting just 40 percent and going 0-1 from 3-point range.
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It’s not a huge sample size, but I’d prefer to bet on Holiday here, as he turned Doncic over more than any other player besides Jaden McDaniels when matched up with Doncic in 2022-23, per the NBA’s stats.
Take the Celtics and another Holiday prop as the Celtics look to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
PICK: Celtics -1.5 (+100, BetMGM) | Jrue Holiday leads series in steals +400 (Bet365)
