Maybe we overestimated the Stars defensively or perhaps we underestimated the Oilers as a five-on-five force, but as Wayne Gretzky said on the TNT broadcast, “the only thing you can figure out about this series is you can’t figure it out.”
Edmonton has topped Dallas in shot attempts by at least seven or more in all four games and is leading in high-danger chances 43-37.
While both power plays have been scoreless and games are bought via even-strength dominance, Jake Oettinger still remains the key to this series.
Three of the four goals he allowed on Wednesday were high-danger chances that occurred from bad turnovers.
He remains No. 3 overall in goals saved above expected among playoff netminders with 8.4 in contrast to Stuart Skinner’s minus-1.
The Oilers are winning in spite of Skinner.
He sporadically emerges with big saves, but rarely puts together 60 minutes of consistent hockey despite the lighter workloads the Oilers have provided him.
Skinner, who owns an .887 save percentage, was on the brink of getting the hook after a rough Game 3.
He then only faced 22 shots on Wednesday, where he yielded two goals in the first 5 ¹/₂ minutes of the game.
The Stars still average the least giveaways per 60 minutes among the four remaining playoff teams.
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They are also 4-1 following a loss this postseason, having trailed in the early portions of all three series.
Look for Oettinger to bounce back on home ice as the Stars’ proven resilience cleans up the sloppy mistakes in front of him.
The play: Stars (-130, bet365)