After the Pacers ran the Knicks off the court Sunday, the Eastern Conference semifinal heads back to Madison Square Garden, even at two games each.
Momentum has firmly shifted toward the Pacers, who took both games in Indiana, emerging from a 2-0 hole.
Can the Knicks bounce back on their home court? Let’s take a look at Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.
Knicks vs. Pacers prediction
Pacers analysis
The Pacers held a 20-point lead after the first quarter Sunday, and due to the nature of the blowout, their starters didn’t play much in the game.
Tyrese Haliburton’s 28 minutes led the team, and he finished with 20 points, six rebounds and five assists. T.J. McConnell added 15 points and 10 assists off the bench.
Pascal Siakam played only 22 minutes in Game 4 due to the blowout, but he finished with 14 points. He’s now shooting 16-of-23 (69 percent) over the last two games, and the Knicks don’t have a good answer for him defensively due to the injury to OG Anunoby.
Indiana’s up-tempo style of play is starting to take a toll on a Knicks’ rotation that’s thinning due to multiple injuries. The Pacers’ depth, with the ability to go nine deep throughout this series, has been a significant advantage.
Indiana ranked second in pace in the regular season, and its ability to constantly have fresh bodies on the court is critical in that approach.
Knicks analysis
The Knicks will have to hope MSG’s magic can reverse their fortunes because they need to bounce back badly after their Game 4 loss.
Jalen Brunson’s foot injury seems to be wearing on him, as he’s averaged just 22 points on 37 percent shooting over his last two games. That’s a far cry from his 36 points on 57 percent shooting in Games 1 and 2.
If Brunson can’t shoulder a significant scoring load, Donte DiVincenzo has to be better than he was in Game 4. He finished with just seven points on 3-of-13 shooting, and regression hit the Villanova product hard after he torched Indiana through the first three games of the series. He’ll be eager for a bounce-back at home, where he was lights out from 3 earlier in this series.
Anunoby’s absence has limited the Knicks’ potency on both ends of the court. He joins Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic and Mitchell Robinson on the pine, while Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein also deal with injuries.
It’s fair to wonder if Tom Thibodeau’s aggressive approach with heavy minutes for starters will ever see the ends justify the means.
Betting on the NBA?
- Check out the best NBA betting sites
- Read our guide on how to bet on basketball
- Get the latest NBA Championship odds
- Use the North Carolina betting apps
Final verdict
The Pacers and Knicks are trending in opposite directions entering Game 5, and the Knicks would be in dire straits if it can’t bounce back at home.
The books expect the Knicks to do so as 2.5-point home favorites, but I like the value on the Indiana moneyline (+120, BetMGM) here.
Take the Pacers to win Game 5 outright and consider a wager on them to win the series as well.
PICK: Pacers moneyline (+120, BetMGM)