There is no nicer way to put it: The Nuggets got punked by the Timberwolves in Game 2 of their Western Conference playoff series on Wednesday.
Punting a road game when you are ahead 3-0 in a series is discouraged but somewhat understandable; getting blown out on your home floor in a must-win Game 2 as a defending champion is inexplicable.
Denver finished with just 80 points in one of its worst postseason efforts in several years. Furthering the embarrassment, the Wolves were without Rudy Gobert, their defensive anchor and four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, due to his wife giving birth.
Now, Gobert is back in the lineup and the Timberwolves have a chance to close out the series at home with back-to-back games in Minneapolis.
Can the Wolves extend the series lead to 3-0 and all but send the Nuggets to Cancun, or will Denver tap into its championship DNA and make this series interesting?
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets | +4.5 (-110) | +154 | o204.5 (-110) |
| Timberwolves | -4.5 (-110) | -185 | u204.5 (-110) |
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves prediction
(9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
We must address the elephant in the room: Jamal Murray’s play in this Western Conference Semifinals series against Minnesota.
Murray has solidified his status as one of the greatest (no, seriously) playoff performers in NBA history. He elevates his overall play, especially his shotmaking when the lights are brightest.
In fact, Murray hit two game-winning shots in the Nuggets’ first series. Not only that, he has a lengthy highlight reel of playoff moments, which is precisely why his performances in Games 1 and 2 are head-scratching.
The Timberwolves’ defense is undoubtedly the best unit (Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, and pretty much everyone not named Mike Conley) in the NBA due to their size, length, cohesion, and depth.
McDaniels is 6-foot-9 with a plus wingspan and swift hands and feet for his size. At the same time, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Murray’s other primary defender, can match his physicality and size and force him away from his spots offensively.
Unfortunately for the Nuggets, Minnesota matches up perfectly with them, including Murray’s matchup against Alexander-Walker and McDaniels. Murray’s lower leg injury has limited his mobility on the floor. Combine that with his shooting woes; it is a recipe for disaster.
The differential in points in the paint in Game 2 (52-34) is another massive concern since Denver ranked fifth in the NBA in points in the paint this season. With Gobert back in the lineup, I don’t see this area drastically improving for Denver.
Ultimately, if Denver (and Jokic) can’t get easy lobs to Aaron Gordon, backdoor cuts for its wings, or feet in the paint for kick-outs, there is little chance it can keep this game close.
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The Nuggets’ uphill battle is even steeper, considering they haven’t shot the ball well from deep (32.2%) as a team throughout this postseason – 5% lower (37.5%) than last season’s championship run.
I will back Minnesota and its outrageously impressive +19.7 net rating through the first two home games of the 2024 playoffs.