The Kentucky Derby is one of the great gambling holidays.
Whether you’re a horseplayer or not, chances are you are going to want a piece of the action come 6:57 p.m. Saturday evening.
And though plenty of railbirds will gladly provide their expertise and opinions to casual punters on the first Saturday in May (and it will make their day if you ask them), there is a way to at least set yourself up for success by just building a strategy and sticking with it as you start placing your bets.
This doesn’t guarantee you’ll win, but it should provide you with plenty of upside if the race breaks your way.
Picking between the favorites (or not picking them at all)
The two favorites in this race No. 17 Fierceness (5-2) and No. 2 Sierra Leone (3-1) are polar opposites, so it’s unlikely a race breaks out where they both have success.
Fierceness is lightning fast and will want to put separation between himself and the field, while Sierra Leone lacks pace but tries to make up for it with endurance and a late-closing style.
If Fierceness fails, it’ll likely be because he loses steam and falls toward the back of the pack.
If Sierra Leone loses, it’ll be because he couldn’t keep up with the pace. It’s hard to imagine a race where they get into a battle down the stretch.
If you want to use one of the headliners, make sure to chuck the other.
It’s also not the worst idea to fade both of these favorites.
It’s likely you’ll lose, but both of these horses need things to break their way, and if they don’t get it on their terms, it could be curtains.
Plus, so much money in the pool will come in on them that if you go against them and get it right, the upside could be tremendous.
Weather
There is some weather in the forecast for Saturday, and it could end up being a muddy or sloppy track.
The last time that happened we saw Country House, a 65-1 long shot, win after Maximum Security was disqualified.
If the track is muddy, you can expect No. 3 Mystik Dan (20-1), No. 1 Dornoch (20-1) and No. 6 Just Steel (20-1) to get plenty of betting support.
You also could see Sierra Leone’s odds shorten and maybe even flip with Fierceness.
Chaos ticket
It may sound obvious to say, but the Kentucky Derby is one of the best opportunities at a big score on the sporting calendar.
It is the only race that features a field with this many horses and this much talent, so it welcomes chaos and variance.
Long shots win. Long shots hit the board.
You want to have at least one ticket where you cash in on the unthinkable happening and the race getting completely flipped.
You only have to go back two years for an example of this happening.
That’s when Rich Strike (80-1) won, creating some monster payouts.
The winning exacta from 2022 paid $4,101.20 on a $2 ticket.
The correct trifecta of Rich Strike and the two favorites — Epicenter and Zandon — paid $14,870.70 on a $1 bet. Mama mia!
Check Out the Best Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites
- Download the best sports betting apps
It’s very unlikely to happen.
But it is worth spending a couple of bucks building a trifecta or superfecta around a couple of long shots and praying they hit the board.
The No. 7 Honor Marie (20-1), No. 15 Domestic Product (30-1), No. 18 Stronghold (20-1) and No. 6 Just Steel (20-1) are good candidates for a chaos ticket.
Set your budget, gamble responsibly.
It’s easy to get carried away on a day like this. Do everything you can to make sure you don’t.
