Minnesota travels to Denver Wednesday night in a matchup that could determine the top overall seed in the NBA‘s Western Conference.
This game is crucial for both teams, as a win could significantly improve their playoff positioning and potentially give them a homecourt advantage in the first round.
Although both teams have identical records at 55-24, Minnesota owns the tiebreaker thanks to a 2-1 advantage in the season series.
It’s been quite the turnaround for an organization that ignominiously had to suspend one of its players, Rudy Gobert, for throwing a punch at a teammate (Kyle Anderson) during a huddle in the final game of the regular season last year.
The Timberwolves look much different than the team the Nuggets defeated 4-1 in the first round en route to last season’s NBA title.
By his admission, Gobert failed to play up to his standards. He was barely involved during training camp while trying to recover from some lingering injuries he picked up at the European Basketball Championship.
With Gobert seemingly healthier, the Timberwolves boast the best defense in the league, and their ability to rebound limits second-chance opportunities against even the most potent offenses.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves | +6.5 (-115) | +200 | o211.5 (-110) |
| Nuggets | -6.5 (-105) | -250 | u211.5 (-110) |
Timberwolves analysis
While most teams in the NBA focus on their offensive capabilities, it is refreshing to see an organization like the Timberwolves take a different approach.
Despite its struggles last year, Minnesota finished in the top half defensively (13th), allowing 110.7 points per 100 possessions.
But this season, the Wolves’ defensive rating improved to 105.1 — almost three points better than second place.
With Gobert available to participate in a full training camp this time around, the Timberwolves installed a new defensive scheme to better fit the players around him.
In addition to playing the drop coverage scheme that led to three Defensive Player of the Year awards over nine seasons with the Jazz, Gobert’s range has been expanded by the T-Wolves, who have him blitzing ball-handlers on the perimeter to disrupt opposing teams’ offenses.
As a result, it’s not uncommon to see Gobert even block shots further away from the rim.
With Gobert willing to engage smaller guards on the perimeter, the Timberwolves’ backcourt has a better chance to recover quicker on pick-and-roll schemes.
Nuggets analysis
Although the Nuggets ultimately defeated the Timberwolves in the first round, Minnesota probably did a better job stymying Nikola Jokic than any other team the Nuggets faced during their title run.
The Timberwolves were the only team that held Jokic under 50% from the floor (48.2%) during the postseason.
Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 27.2 points in the series. Murray is a vital player for Denver, ranking second in scoring with 21 points per game.
But with the playoffs right around the corner, the Nuggets have to be somewhat cautious with him after inflammation in his right forced him to miss seven games.
While Murray has returned to the lineup for Denver’s last two games, he’s currently on a minutes restriction.
The Nuggets comfortably won both games in his return by double-digits — albeit against an Atlanta and Utah team ranked in the bottom-four in defensive efficiency.
Wednesday’s matchup should have a different feel, and with a low total hovering around 211.5 points, having fewer possessions could give the Timberwolves the upper hand in keeping the game inside the number.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick
Things looked gloomy for Minnesota after Karl Anthony Town suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee on March 4. However, the Timberwolves have gone 12-5 since his injury.
Both teams are very familiar with one another since they’re also in the same division.
Gobert’s ability to somewhat keep Jokic in check gives Minnesota a chance in this game.
The Nuggets will also have to contend with slowing down Anthony Edwards, who is one of the league’s biggest rising stars.
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In addition to Towns, the Timberwolves have five players ranked in the top five regarding defensive efficiency. Minnesota is much more than just Gobert on the defensive end.
With so much on the line, this should be a competitive game on both sides. While Denver is currently a six-point favorite, my model has these teams separated by roughly four.
As a result, bettors should take advantage of the Timberwolves catching 6.5 points.