Then there were Four.
Across two weeks and 64 basketball games, we’ve reached the final three-game set of the 2024 college basketball season.
It’s been a fun ride, but it’s come to a slightly unfortunate end – two potential blowouts.
The Boilermakers are laying almost 10 points against the Wolfpack, while the Huskies are laying almost two touchdowns against the Crimson Tide.
Vegas doesn’t expect the most exciting matchups, but there’s always entertainment with gambling.
Here’s how I’m looking to bet on each Final Four game.
NC State vs. Purdue prediction
- Odds: Purdue -9.5, Over/Under 146
- Time: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
About 90% of the early tickets are coming in on the Under, pushing the number down from an opener of 147.5 to 146.
I disagree with the early steam.
NC State has made this miraculous 10-game ACC and NCAA Tournament run by relying on DJ Burns’ playmaking from the post.
He’s too large and physical, his footwork is too good, and his touch is immaculate. Nobody can stop that combination.
Burns obliterated Duke in the Elite Eight matchup, shredding Kyle Filipowski and forcing him to foul out before dog-walking Ryan Young. When the dust settled, Burns finished with 18 points on 13 post-up possessions, a whopping 1.39 PPP.
His bag is infinitely deep.
But if defenses try to double Burns or front the post, the big man will slice and dice opponents with elite vision. Marquette limited him to only four shot attempts, and he responded by dishing out seven assists to cutters and shooters.
As a result, you get this:
Unfortunately, the Wolfpack can get shredded on the other end of the court, as Burns is too laterally slow to effectively defend high-post scorers or ball screens – if you move him around, you can score on him.
NC State’s a little lucky to be here, considering the Pack’s opponents haven’t hit any jumpers. Their four tournament opponents have shot a combined 28-for-117 (24%) from 3.
Purdue leverages Zach Edey’s dominance in the post to open up perimeter jumpers, and the Boilermakers rank second nationally in 3-point shooting (41%).
With Edey scoring on Burns, I’d imagine the Boilers generate plenty of open jumpers, and some are bound to start falling against NC State.
However, Edey is laterally slow like Burns, making him similarly vulnerable on defense. Again, if you move him around, you can score on him.
So, neither star big man nor team defense grades out well defending post-up or ball-screen sets, which is problematic against two post-centric offenses. And if either defense attempts to bring extra resources toward Burns or Edey, both can effectively dish it to secondary scorers.
Therefore, I think we’ll see consistent, efficient offense for 40 minutes on both ends. These two teams are a combined 43-26 (62%) to the over this year for a reason.
The advanced statistical models agree with me, rather than the market, with ShotQualityBets, EvanMiya, BartTorvik and KenPom all projecting over 150 points in this Final Four matchup.
Pick: Over 146 (-110, DraftKings)
Alabama vs. UConn prediction
- Odds: UConn -12, Over/Under 160.5
- Time: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
The Wolfpack are a little lucky to be in the Final Four.
But the Tide are super lucky to be in the Final Four.
During this four-game NCAA Tournament run, Alabama has shot 42% from 3 on nearly 30 attempts per game, most recently draining 16 triples on 36 attempts (44%) against Clemson.
Meanwhile, the Tide’s opponents shot 28% from 3 on 28 attempts per game and 68% from the free-throw line on 25 attempts per game.
That’s crazy.
It’s so crazy that I have to project the Tide as overvalued and due for regression.
Of course, everyone needs a little luck to make it to the Final Four.
Unless you’re the UConn Huskies.
The Huskies have shot only 25-for-89 (28%) from 3 during their four-game tournament run. But Dan Hurley has built a complex, variable offense that can shapeshift and adjust when Plan A isn’t in the cards.
UConn initiates offense through secondary stagger screens, but the Huskies haven’t been able to consistently hit 3-point shots over the past month. Instead, they’ve leaned into more high pick-and-roll sets with Tristen Newton and cutting/post-up sets with Donovan Clingan.
As a result, the Huskies have scored over 50 paint points in three of their four tournament wins, allowing them to shoot 3-for-22 (14%) from deep against Northwestern and win by 27, or 3-for-17 (18%) against Illinois and win by 25.
Hurley’s deep and structured playbook makes the Huskies hard to scheme for on short rest and less vulnerable to the inherent variance of the Tournament’s one-and-done structure.
If perimeter shots aren’t falling, the Huskies will hit you with something like this:
So, even if UConn can’t make a shot, the Huskies can score relentlessly on the interior.
Meanwhile, Alabama is only here because its opponents haven’t made perimeter shots, as the Tide boast a horrendous interior defense. Nate Oats has leaned into more small-ball lineups with Rylan Griffen at the four, making the Tide ruthlessly efficient on offense but sacrificing any attempt at rim protection and rebounding.
They’ve allowed over 35 paint points per game during this four-game stretch, including 42 to Clemson. They allowed 27 second-chance points to Charleston and 20 to North Carolina. But they’ve stayed afloat because opponents need those 3-point shots to beat Alabama.
But if UConn can’t make free throws or a 3-pointer, the Huskies can roll through the Tide on the interior, as they’ve done against their last four opponents.
However, Alabama has been shooting over its head, and I believe UConn has the defensive structure to force the regression train into Tuscaloosa Station.
UConn runs a drop-coverage defense that efficiently defends the rim and the perimeter. As such, the Huskies rank top-50 nationally in 3-point rate allowed, top-40 in 3-point attempts per game allowed and top-20 in catch-and-shoot opportunities per game allowed.
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If Alabama stops hitting 3s at a 45% clip, the Tide’s offense could stall easily against UConn in the Final Four.
As such, I’m laying the points with UConn. They’ve won 10 straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digit margins, and I’m banking on another.
Pick: UConn -11.5 (-110, FanDuel)
