Caitlin Clark and top-seeded Iowa advanced to the second round of the women’s NCAA Tournament by pounding 16th-seeded Holy Cross, 91-65, on Saturday.
About the only thing the Cyclones failed to do in the game was cover the spread after closing as 39.5-point favorites. The game also stayed under the total of 157.5 points.
Iowa will now take on the eighth-seeded Mountaineers of West Virginia in the second round Monday night, this time with a more reasonable spread.
The Hawkeyes opened as 16.5-point favorites, but the market has weighed in, betting Iowa down to -15.5. We haven’t seen much movement in the total since it opened at 163.5.
With the Hawkeyes hosting the first two games on their campus, there’s a bit of added pressure for them to entertain their home fans.
As a result, Iowa’s team total offers us the best opportunity to cash a winning ticket in this contest
West Virginia vs. Iowa odds
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| WVU +15.5 (-105) Iowa -15.5 (-115) | Over 163.5 (-115) Under 163.5 (-105) | WVU +850 Iowa -1600 |
West Virginia analysis
The Mountaineers like to play with pace. Per HoopStats, West Virginia ranks 68th with 73.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
Defensively, they rank fourth in efficiency, allowing 78.6 points per 100 possessions.
West Virginia’s stout defense largely depends on its ability to defend the perimeter. Opponents are making just 4.8 3-pointers per game, the 43rd-best mark in the country.
But it’s not just that opponents are struggling to make shots behind the arc; West Virginia is also limiting them to 16 3-point attempts, ranking 46th in Division I.
However, Iowa is third in the country, with almost twice as many 3-point attempts and 29.7 per game.
While Clark will undoubtedly garner plenty of attention with 15.9 3-point attempts per game, the Hawkeyes have four players who average at least five tries from beyond the arc.
Thus, the Mountaineers will need to do more than slow Clark down to have a chance to stay within striking distance in this matchup.
Iowa analysis
If you’re facing Clark and the Hawkeyes, you better get in a defensive stance the moment your team bus pulls up to the arena.
Iowa ranks 13th in pace, averaging 77 possessions per 40 minutes. The Hawkeyes are also No. 1 in efficiency, averaging 119.1 points per 100 possessions.
Opposing teams find it difficult to simulate the Hawkeyes’ frenetic pace, and given how efficient they are at scoring, it doesn’t take long before those teams find themselves chasing the game.
In other words, the Hawkeyes do a tremendous job of speeding up their opponents.
If you double-team Clark, her vision is so good that she can find where the open player is on the court. It’s worth noting that Iowa has the second-best assist-to-turnover ratio with a 1.59 mark.
Therefore, trying to pressure Clark doesn’t always go according to plan, because she’ll still find ways to create scoring opportunities for her teammates.
West Virginia vs. Iowa pick
Out of the 22 games West Virginia played against Power 6 schools this season, only two opponents (Iowa State and TCU) attempted 26 or more 3-pointers and neither team shot better than 32.1% from beyond the arc.
The Hawkeyes shoot 38% from the perimeter, ranking ninth in this metric. While Iowa leads all schools with 11.8 3-point field goals per game, it’s only 24th in percentage of scoring from 3-pointers (36.4%).
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Based on those numbers, Iowa’s offense is even more balanced than it might look on paper.
West Virginia’s opponents ranked 268th with an average offensive rating of 94.3. Iowa is simply in a different class, and I project the Hawkeyes to go over their team total of 89.5 points.
Pick: Iowa team total over 89.5 points (-121, BetRivers)