Yale punched its ticket to the Big Dance on a last-second shot when forward Matt Knowling hit a short jump shot to beat Brown, 62-61, in the Ivy League Tournament final.
The 13th-seeded Bulldogs now take on the fourth-seeded Auburn Tigers in an East Region matchup Friday afternoon in Spokane, Wash.
While you can imagine that Yale would’ve been happy to play just about anywhere, given their path to the NCAA Tournament, I’m not sure you can say the same for the Tigers and head coach Bruce Pearl.
Shortly after winning the SEC Tournament, Pearl wasn’t too thrilled about the Selection Committee’s decision to move his team out West.
“This is three times they have shipped us quite a ways away,” Pearl told reporters. “This is now the third time we’re being shipped across the country. You always wonder how much this thing was seeded before the Sunday final.”
Pearl is referring to the 2018 and 2019 seasons when Auburn began the tournament in San Diego and then Salt Lake City a year later.
His concern is that the long journey might result in fewer Auburn fans traveling across the country.
While this might be nothing more than coachspeak, the Yale Bulldogs will welcome any distraction that leads to the Tigers being somewhat off their game.
No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Auburn odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | +12.5 (-110) | o140.5 (-110) | +610 |
| Auburn | -12.5 (-110) | u140.5 (-110) | -950 |
Yale analysis
The Bulldogs have some history with Auburn, given their 86-64 road loss during the regular season three seasons ago.
I went back to look at Yale’s profile that year, and it played with a more uptempo style for much of the campaign.
According to TeamRankings, the Bulldogs ranked 78th in pace with 72.1 possessions per game. Perhaps it’s not surprising then that Yale was content to play at a fast pace against Auburn.
However, that decision might’ve been their undoing as Auburn won the game in blowout fashion.
Coach James Jones, a four-time Ivy League Coach of the Year, is smart enough to avoid using the same strategy this time. A closer look reveals that Jones probably doesn’t even have the personnel to play in the same style.
This season, Yale ranks 295th in pace with 68.2 possessions per game.
Yale will need to be patient to work the middle of the paint. Per Hoop-Math, the Bulldogs rank 44th with 44.2% of their field goal attempts at the rim.
If Yale is committed to getting its frontcourt players touches inside, it might have a better chance at controlling the game’s pace.
Auburn analysis
It’s bad enough that Auburn has to start the tournament on the West Coast, but being seeded fourth is probably a slap in the face for the SEC Tournament champions.
For example, the Tigers rank fifth in NCAA Net Rankings, which account for more than just wins and losses; they also factor in the strength of schedule, game location, offensive and defensive efficiencies, and quality of wins and losses.
Moreover, Ken Pomeroy ranks Auburn as the fourth-best team in the country.
How you’re seeded plays a massive role in your path through the tournament, as you don’t want to play the better teams until you’re into the latter stages.
Overall, Auburn is a complete team and one of only two in the top 10 of Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defensive metrics.
One key metric I look at when assessing a team’s defensive ability is how it defends the perimeter. Not only do the Tigers rank 62nd in opponent 3-point attempts, they also rank 19th in allowing just 5.8 3-point field goals per game.
While Yale does have some balance, considering it makes 7.3 3-pointers per game, I don’t think it’ll have that much success against Auburn’s stingy perimeter defense.
Yale vs. Auburn pick
Part of me believes the Tigers can name their score in this game. However, I think Yale will force them to be efficient by slowing down the game.
If the Bulldogs try to get into a shootout with Auburn, this game will be over quickly.
Historically, we’ve seen Ivy League teams come into the tournament and control the game’s pace.
According to our Action Labs database, the total is 14-3 (82,4%) to the under in the NCAA Tournament when Ivy League teams are seeded higher with an opening total of 130 or more points.
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And when we adjust our parameters to include only SEC opponents, the under is a perfect 4-0.
This total opened at 138.5 and is now up to 140.5 at some books. That number seems a bit high if we’re expecting a slower-paced game.
While it’ll be interesting to see if the market pushes this number even higher, I’m comfortable locking in a play on the under at 140.5.
Pick: Under 140.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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