It’ll be the first road course race of 2024 as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, Texas, for a race at Circuit of the Americas. The 20-turn road course is hosting a Cup Series race for the fourth time.
This race should be much different than last week’s thriller at Bristol. The short track dealt with severe tire wear, and basically everyone was dealing with tire issues.
In the end, Denny Hamlin captured his fourth career Bristol win.
Joe Gibbs Racing has been red hot over the last two weeks, but they’ve lacked speed at road courses with the Next-Gen car.
This weekend’s race at COTA could open the door for other drivers.
How should you approach Sunday’s race at COTA? My favorite props bets are available below.
EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: Top outright odds
| Driver | FanDuel | BetMGM | BetRivers |
| Tyler Reddick | +400 | +350 | +200 |
| Chase Elliott | +800 | +900 | +900 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | +900 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +900 | +1400 | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1000 | +1200 | +900 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1200 | +900 | +1300 |
| Christopher Bell | +1000 | +1100 | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 | +1400 | +1100 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1400 | +1400 | +1600 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +1400 | +1300 | +1400 |
| Alex Bowman | +1400 | +2500 | +1400 |
| Kyle Busch | +1500 | +2000 | +1400 |
EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix prop bets
Driver matchup: Ross Chastain over Kyle Larson (-115, bet365)
Chastain returns to the site of his first Cup Series victory two years ago. He moved A.J. Allmendinger in the final turn to score the victory at COTA. Overall, the track has been very kind to him.
Chastain is the only driver to finish in the top five in all three races at COTA. Kyle Larson had an impressive runner-up finish in 2021. However, he hasn’t shown the same speed in the last two years.
Larson crashed in both races, finishing outside the top 10. He’s an accomplished road course racer, but COTA has been a struggle for the No. 5 team. He’ll have a tough time against arguably the best driver at the track.
Chastain should be in contention for another top-5 finish and possibly the win. A strong performance should put him ahead of Larson on Sunday.
Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain to finish top 10 (+210, Caesars)
While Chastain should have no issues scoring a top-10 finish, expect his Trackhouse Racing teammate, Suarez, to join him.
Suarez’s COTA numbers are very misleading. He led the first 15 laps and won Stage 1 in the 2022 race but couldn’t recover from a pit road penalty. Last year, he was in a late wreck that led to a 27th-place finish.
Suarez had the fourth-best average running position and fifth-best driver rating in that race. The speed indicates he had a top-5 car, but the end of that race was pure carnage.
Trackhouse Racing should bring plenty of speed for Sunday’s race. Look out for both Chastain and Suarez to finish in the top 10.
Top Ford car: Austin Cindric (+450, DraftKings)
Austin Cindric has long been a great road course racer. He dominated the track type in the Xfinity Series and has seven top-10 finishes in 15 career road course starts in the Cup Series.
Cindric needs a good finish after three straight outside the top 25. He knows COTA is one of his best chances at a win, and he enters this weekend with back-to-back top 10s at the track.
The accomplished road racer will have competition from Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher. Both drivers were better than Cindric on road courses in 2023, but he’s been slightly better at COTA.
Cindric’s aggressive driving style should be on display this weekend. He could bully his way to a top-5 finish and become the top Ford driver.
Cars to finish on lead lap: More than 30.5 (-115, Caesars)
Last week, I took under 12.5 cars on the lead lap, and it came through with only five cars. I’m going in the opposite direction this week with 31-plus cars to finish on the lead lap.
This prop hit in 2021 and 2022 but barely missed with 29 cars on the lead lap in last year’s race, which featured many crashes in Turn 1 immediately after a restart.
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NASCAR changed the restart zone to string out the field as drivers enter a tight first turn. With fewer cars compressed together, there should be fewer incidents in the opening turn.
There are 39 cars in the field for Sunday’s race. I don’t see more than eight finishing off the lead lap.