Mike Evans’ free agency is expected to be robust in an exploded NFL salary cap.
While the bookies over at DraftKings still expect Evans to return to Tampa Bay, it’s not a lock.
Evans is -175 to return to the Buccaneers, giving him a roughly 63.64 percent chance implied that the Buccaneers actually let him go elsewhere.
Tampa Bay has plenty of cap space to make a deal work, even with an expected extension due for quarterback Baker Mayfield.
The Buccaneers have $43 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap.
Aside from Tampa Bay, the favorite to bring Evans into the fold is the Houston Texans, a team that is expected to be extremely active in attempting to upgrade its roster now that it has have budding star quarterback CJ Stroud on a rookie contract.
Houston is expected to have more than $67 million in cap space this offseason, although the Texans do not have a clear need for a wide receiver, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell taking massive leaps in 2023.
Mike Evans next team odds
| Next Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -175 |
| Houston Texans | +330 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 |
| Carolina Panthers | 15/1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20/1 |
| Chicago Bears | 20/1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 20/1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 25/1 |
| New England Patriots | 30/1 |
| Detroit Lions | 30/1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 30/1 |
| New York Jets | 35/1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 35/1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 40/1 |
| New York Giants | 40/1 |
Mike Evans free agency breakdown
The Contenders
Some of the odds for Evans are a bit outlandish.
For instance, the Bills are just 35/1 to land the former Texas A&M Aggie but Buffalo doesn’t really have a road map to landing Evans, considering they have the worst cap situation in the NFL, still sitting $40 million over the cap despite a leap in media revenue pumping up the numbers.
Even if Buffalo moved on from Von Miller and Stefon Diggs, even the sleekest of accountants couldn’t bail the Bills out of poor cap space.
The Kansas City Chiefs (+500) would make sense for Evans, who has played with some of the game’s best quarterbacks at each level of his career.
In college, he dominated while catching balls for Heisman Trophy-winning Johnny Manziel and later won a Super Bowl as the No. 1 receiver for Tom Brady.
Evans could add to his resume of elite ball-throwers with Patrick Mahomes, who was extremely frustrated with drops from receivers during the regular season despite winning his second consecutive Super Bowl.
The long shots
On the off chance that Evans decides to “bag chase” and just get the biggest contract possible, the Washington Commanders (50/1) have a subpar wide receiver room and an expected rookie quarterback.
The Commanders have $77 million in cap space and will have a quarterback on a rookie contract, be it the No. 3 pick or incumbent Sam Howell.
Washington could easily front-load a record-setting contract for Evans and move forward with a duo on offense.
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Speaking of poor receiver groups, the New England Patriots (30/1) really tried to go into the 2023 season with Juju Smith-Schuester as their No.1 receiver. That was one of many abject disasters in New England that led to the firing of Bill Belichick.
It’s a new era with Jerod Mayo as the head coach, and they have $78 million in cap space in Massachusetts.
Would Evans go for one of these teams that are so far away from competing for a title?
That’s the million-dollar question for one of the league’s best receivers.