Wins over Final Four contenders North Carolina, Auburn and Alabama.
Losses to NIT hopeful LSU, mid-major UNC-Wilmington and on-the-bubble Gonzaga.
There isn’t a more unpredictable team in the country than Kentucky. Its best is national championship-good. Its worst could lead to another NCAA Tournament flop for a program that hasn’t reached the second weekend since 2019.
John Calipari’s 17th-ranked Wildcats are the most fascinating team in college basketball as March nears, one of only two teams in the country with three wins over the top-10 in the NET rankings, along with Purdue. Capable of reaching Phoenix for the Final Four, but just as prone to getting upset. Nobody has a higher variance than this team of four McDonald’s All-Americans and future NBA players.
This week was an apt example. On Wednesday, Kentucky blew a nine-point lead at LSU. Three days later, it overwhelmed SEC leader and 12th-ranked Alabama, hanging 117 points on the Crimson Tide. It was the second-most points Kentucky has scored in an SEC game in Rupp Arena. Just a week ago, it crushed No. 14 Auburn on the road, handing the Tigers their lone home loss.
Calipari’s crew has now won four of its last six games, as the Wildcats show signs of the consistency that has been lacking. This team has depth, size and elite athleticism, projected lottery picks in guards Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham and an array of talent around them. Alabama had no answer for the quintet of Sheppard, Dillingham, Antonio Reeves, Justin Edwards and Croatian 7-footer Zvonimir Ivisic on Saturday. The five can all shoot it from deep and handle the ball.
“Maybe that group doesn’t play as much together because they’re poor defensively, but if they’re going to score every time down, it doesn’t matter,” Alabama coach Nate Oats told reporters afterwards.
Offense really hasn’t been a problem for Kentucky. It is ranked eighth in adjusted efficiency, a sign of how potent this group can be when it is clicking. It is only 76th in defensive efficiency, which is at the core of the Wildcats’ inconsistency, though there has been improvement of late.
They remind me of Connecticut at this point last year. Coming off a shaky January when it lost five of eight games including multiple setbacks to non-tournament teams, the Huskies were just starting to hit their stride by the end of February.
Like Kentucky this year, Connecticut had a number of high-level wins, but also a handful of mystifying losses. It wasn’t a question of talent. It was whether coach Dan Hurley could put it all together. Remember, Hurley was coming off back-to-back opening-round losses in the NCAA Tournament and there were doubts whether he could win when it really mattered. There is a similar sentiment about Calipari, who has struggled to get it done in March in recent years.
Those Huskies began to put it together at this time, beating ranked opponents Marquette and Providence. They entered the NCAA Tournament as a four-seed, and went on to cruise to a national championship, beating all six opponents by double figures.
The same type of March could be in store for Kentucky. The talent is obviously there. Auburn, North Carolina and Alabama would agree with that. Of course, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see another early tournament exit from the Wildcats, either.
One thing is certain: Kentucky is the team you won’t be able to take your eyes off of next month.
Storming mad
There have now been two major court-storming incidents. First was Caitlin Clark and Iowa. Now there is Duke and projected first-round pick Kyle Filipowski, who suffered a sprained ankle on Saturday after Wake Forest beat the Blue Devils and its fans stormed the court.
It’s time this gets eliminated. What are we waiting for? It’s going to get worse, not better. Yes, it’s tradition. Guess what else was tradition? College athletes not profiting over their name, image or likeness.
Sometime soon, a major brawl is going to break out because of this, or a player will suffer a season-ending injury. We’re seeing more incidents, not less. At some point, there will be no choice but to ban them. Why wait until something really bad happens?
Game of the Week
No. 5 Tennessee at No. 13 Alabama, Saturday, 8 p.m.
It will be the No. 2 defense in adjusted efficiency (Tennessee) against the No. 1 offense (Alabama). It will be the two teams tied atop the SEC standings, both coming in hot. Tennessee has won six of its last seven games and Alabama has won seven of nine. Tuscaloosa will be on fire for this showdown of opposing styles and Final Four contenders that very well could determine the SEC title, and the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge after its 20-point loss at Tennessee on Jan. 20.
Seedings
1. Houston, Purdue, Connecticut, Tennessee
2. Arizona, Kansas, North Carolina, Marquette
3. Iowa State, Alabama, Baylor, Auburn
4. Duke, San Diego State, Creighton, Illinois
Stock Watch
Up
Seton Hall
It’s not just that the Pirates were picked to finish ninth in the Big East by the league’s coaches and that placement felt well within reason. They looked like a bad team through the second week in December, with ugly losses to USC, Iowa and Rutgers. Then, out of nowhere, a switch flipped. Since the loss to its in-state rival, Seton Hall is 13-5 and two of those losses came without star guard Kadary Richmond. It has lost once at home in that span, a triple-overtime thriller to No. 15 Creighton. From mid-December until now, there isn’t a bigger surprise in the country than Shaheen Holloway’s gritty, NCAA Tournament-bound team.
Saint Mary’s
The longest winning streak in the country now belongs to the Gaels, who haven’t lost since Dec. 23. They have stacked up 15 straight victories, rebounding from a shaky start to lock up what will be a third straight NCAA Tournament bid. It is typical Saint Mary’s: stout defensively, balanced offensively and capable of doing damage with the right draw. With one win this week, the Gaels would clinch their first outright WCC regular-season title since 2012.
Down
Virginia
Once safely in the NCAA Tournament, Virginia’s spot is now precarious. That’s what losing three of four games and averaging 49.2 points in that span will do. The Cavaliers’ résumé is really not that impressive. Three wins over at-large teams (Florida, Wake Forest and Clemson), a NET ranking of 48 and 6-7 record in Quad 1 and 2 games. They are offensively challenged and trending in the wrong direction. Too many Bracketologists are slotting them ahead of teams like Providence and Seton Hall with significantly better résumés. Virginia should be at best in the “last four in” category.
Mike Woodson
On paper, Indiana had a strong offseason, adding five-star freshman Mackenzie Mgbako and transfers Kel’el Ware (Oregon), Payton Sparks (Ball State) and Anthony Walker (Miami). But the results have not been there in Woodson’s third season. The Hoosiers are flirting with a losing season, ranked 108th in the NET and have lost eight of their last 10 games. Only Ohio State and Michigan are below Indiana in the Big Ten standings.
