It’s been a difficult campaign for the Miami Hurricanes a year after the program went 29-8 en route to its first-ever Final Four appearance.
Despite returning three starters and 52% of their players’ minutes, the Hurricanes have struggled to replace the production of Isaiah Wong, the 2023 ACC Player of the Year.
Miami is just 15-13 on the year and has lost its last six games.
Next up is a trip to Chapel Hill to take on a 10th-ranked Tar Heels (21-5) team that sits atop the ACC with a 13-3 conference mark.
North Carolina comes into this game off a 54-44 road victory over Virginia.
While a low-scoring game was expected given Virginia’s slow-plodding offense, there tends to be some carryover into a team’s next game after facing the Cavaliers.
Miami analysis
There’s no question the cachet of the ACC has allowed Miami coach Jim Larrañaga to attract better players than he was able to at George Mason, where he led the Patriots to a Final Four appearance in 2006.
As a result, Larrañaga modified his style of play when he landed in South Beach in 2011, opting for a more up-tempo brand of basketball.
The Hurricanes want to get the ball up and down the court in transition while taking advantage of their perimeter game in the halfcourt.
Subsequently, defense has never really been Miami’s strong suit.
For example, last season, the Hurricanes ranked 99th in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency, but they finished sixth in adjusted offense.
This season, the Hurricanes rank 135th in adjusted defense and 72nd in adjusted offense.
Thus, it’s clear Miami’s biggest drop-off this season has been on the offensive end of the floor, further supporting the assertion that Wong has been a significant loss this season.
Per TeamRankings, the Hurricanes average 107 points per 100 possessions compared to 112 in 2023.
Considering this total against North Carolina is as high as 155 at one sportsbook, I question how effective Miami can be in pushing this game over the number.
North Carolina analysis
The Tar Heels will undoubtedly look forward to facing an opponent like Miami that’s committed to playing a more modern style of basketball.
However, I do think there’s also an adjustment period that comes with having to face such contrasting styles in back-to-back games.
All you need is a few empty possessions to put the over of 155 points in real peril.
Although North Carolina returned two starters and 44% of its player minutes from a season ago, they’ve actually been much better defensively.
The Tar Heels rank eighth in Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 93.6 points per 100 possessions, down from 97.2 in 2023 (ranked 46th).
North Carolina does a tremendous job guarding the perimeter, ranking 18th in opponent 3-point percentage (29.9%).
In their first meeting against the Hurricanes on Feb. 10, Miami shot just 26.1% from beyond the arc.
The Hurricanes rank 32nd with 27 points per game from behind the perimeter, but that number drops to 24.8 (78th) when they’re on the road.
Therefore, I’d expect the Tar Heels to remain committed to thwarting the Hurricanes’ perimeter shooting.
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Miami vs. North Carolina prediction
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The first thing I thought about with this matchup was whether there’s a discernable correlation with the total in a team’s next game after playing such a tempo-challenged team like Virginia.
Per KillerSports.com, the total is 170-157-2 (52%) to the under in this spot. But if we adjust our parameters to include only games with a total of 153.5 or higher, the under improves to 22-9-1 (71%).
I was also interested in how the under performs in North Carolina games, with an opening total of 153.5 or more points after being bet up by the market.
According to our Action Labs database, the under is 66-41-1 (61.1%) for 19.88 units.
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Considering that my model projects a total closer to 151.2 points, I am confident in fading this market move and recommending a play on the under at 155 or better.