For a second, Tony Bennett had us fooled.
After a slow start to the conference season, the Cavaliers stormed to seven consecutive victories, surging to a 10-3 conference record that had them trailing only North Carolina in the ACC standings.
But Virginia still ranked around 50th in KenPom’s ratings with a woefully anemic offense, and the Cavs showed their shortcomings over the past fortnight.
They lost to Pitt by double digits at home last Tuesday, barely squeaked by Wake Forest by two also at home last Saturday, and then lost to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg by 34 points on Monday.
The Cavs have scored exactly 90 points over their past two games.
On Saturday, these Cavs host the first-place Tar Heels, who just beat those same Hokies by 15 in Chapel Hill last Saturday and have a week to prep for this matchup.
But this is a big bounce-back spot for Coach Bennett, and it’s an excellent schematic matchup for Virginia.
North Carolina vs. Virginia pick
(4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Before we dive into the Xs and Os, let’s start with a history lesson.
Bennett-led teams have only been home ‘dogs 22 times over the past two decades, with his Wazzu and Virginia teams going 13-9 ATS in those games (59%).
Bennett-led teams are 49-39-2 ATS following a loss (56%). They’re also 20-9-1 ATS after consecutive losses (69%), for what it’s worth.
Meanwhile, ranked teams on the road are 88-109-2 ATS (44%) this season. North Carolina still sits at No. 10 in the most recent AP Poll.
The situational spot screams Cavaliers.
But I think Virginia can keep the game close – or win outright – either way.
The Heels run a pace-and-post offense, pushing in transition with the guard trio of Elliot Cadeau, Cormac Ryan and RJ Davis while scoring on the low block with Armando Bacot.
The guards run off-ball screen sets on the perimeter when the pace-and-post isn’t there.
But Virginia’s defense is still elite. The Cavs rank fourth among ACC squads in defensive efficiency during conference play.
They’re fantastic at denying transition opportunities, leading the nation in transition possessions per game allowed (6.8) and ranking in the top 10 in fast-break points per game allowed (5.9).
They play excruciatingly slow – last nationally in adjusted tempo – so it’s almost impossible to speed them up.
Additionally, Virginia’s pack-line defense is excellent in the gaps, so it’s hard to get the ball to the low block.
And if you do squeak the ball through, the Cavaliers are an excellent post defense, ranking far above average in post-up PPP allowed (.78, 80th percentile) while leading the ACC in block rate (15%) and paint points per game allowed (24).
I don’t expect North Carolina to find any consistency or comfort on offense, especially in Charlottesville, where they’ve lost two straight while failing to reach 60 points in either contest.
Conversely, Virginia’s offense is pitiful.
The only reason the Cavs have stayed afloat in conference play is thanks to unsustainable 3-point shooting (39%).
But the Cavaliers run a blocker-mover motion offense, primarily generating offense through off-ball screen, cutting and isolation sets.
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Nobody runs more off-ball screens per game than Virginia (12.3).
And the Heels can’t stop secondary actions, allowing the 10th-most points on off-ball screen sets nationally (116 at 1.1 PPP).
They’re arguably worse when defending on an island, where they’ve also allowed the 10th-most points to isolation scorers (137 at .92 PPP).
Virginia matches up well stylistically with North Carolina, and the Cavs are in a good bounce-back spot.
The Heels have lost two straight at Virginia, and I’m betting they’ll at least flirt with a third on Saturday afternoon.
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North Carolina vs. Virginia prediction
Virginia +2.5