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North Carolina vs. Syracuse prediction: College basketball odds, picks, best bets for Tuesday

By
Social Links for Tanner McGrath, Action Network
Published Feb. 13, 2024, 3:00 p.m. ET
North Carolina destroyed Syracuse at home earlier this season.
North Carolina destroyed Syracuse at home earlier this season. AP

A few weeks ago, North Carolina hosted Syracuse in Chapel Hill and dropped 103 in a 36-point victory. 

And the Tar Heels didn’t need lucky shooting to do it, making only seven of 26 (27%) 3-point attempts. 

Instead, North Carolina dominated the boards (53 rebounds to 30), scored 32 points on 27 transition attempts (1.19 PPP), and shot 30-for-51 (59%) from the interior en route to a whopping 58 points in the paint. 

North Carolina vs. Syracuse prediction

(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

This makes sense, given North Carolina is a pace-and-post offense behind Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, Cormac Ryan, and Armando Bacot.

The three guards push the pace in transition and get the ball to the superstar big man on the low block. 

Meanwhile, Syracuse boasts a horrid interior defense, ranking 15th among ACC teams during conference play in two-point shooting allowed (55%) and sub-300th nationally in post-up PPP allowed (0.95).

The Orange allow around 38 paint points per game (fourth percentile). 

Even worse, Syracuse can’t keep teams out of transition, allowing more than 12 fast-break points per game (ninth percentile).

The Orange are shaky ball-handlers, often leading to opponent run-out opportunities – they posted 17 turnovers in the last loss to UNC. 

Syracuse lost at home to Clemson in its last game.
Syracuse lost at home to Clemson in its last game. AP

This is a brutal matchup for Syracuse’s defense, which played out in the last meeting.

On the other end of the court, Syracuse will run plenty of ball screens trying to attack the rim with guards JJ Starling and Judah Mintz. 

But the Tar Heels rank top-50 nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (0.94) and top-90 in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.10), ranking second in the ACC in two-point defense during league play (45%). 

So, in the last matchup, Syracuse managed only 35 points on a whopping 45 ball screens (0.78), a wildly inefficient mark.

The Orange also couldn’t get the ball inside, failing to generate much success in the paint, where they only made about half of their 30 attempts. 

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North Carolina has significant two-way schematic advantages over Syracuse.

Add the rebounding differential, where the Heels are the conference’s best rebounding team (first in offensive rebounding rate, second in defensive rebounding rate) while the Orange are arguably the worst (14th in both rates), and I smell another blowout. 

I’m betting that UNC scores transition and paint buckets in droves, stops, and/or turns over Syracuse’s ball-screen motion offense, and snags every available rebound in a dominant double-digit victory. 

For local UNC fans who want to bet on the Tar Heels for the first time this March, they can use the FanDuel North Carolina promo code for an added bonus. In addition to that bonus, the Fanatics North Carolina promo code can also assist new UNC sports bettors.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse pick

North Carolina -8 (-107, BetRivers)