GLENDALE, Ariz. — We can talk spectacle because spectacle is part of the Shohei Ohtani experience.
He parcels out when he talks to reporters as opposed to the vast majority of players who will talk if you just approach them. So it was established that Thursday was going to be his time. And the Dodgers rigged a version of a velvet rope that would separate Ohtani and his interpreter from those posing questions. Something I had seen in mixed zone covering the Olympics, but never in baseball. Certainly not on Feb. 9 in what is supposed to be the laconic moments of early spring training.
But this is the Ohtani way, in part because so many want to chronicle his every move, especially back home. And so there were roughly 70 reporters on their side of the velvet rope, 50-ish from Japan. The other reason why Ohtani limits commenting to media is, his handlers say, because of a dense, detailed preparatory system that has allowed him to become the first player in MLB history to pitch and hit to the extent he does and to a level that the Dodgers agreed with him on a 10-year, $700 million contract.
Which led me to not think about spectacle as much as special, as in just how special might Ohtani’s offensive performance be in 2024, considering he will not have to prepare as a pitcher — at least not to pitch in a major league game once a week as he recovers from Tommy John surgery with an eye on being a two-way player again next season.
“That is a really interesting question,” said Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow. “It is hard to even guess.”
Here is some stuff to ponder if you want to begin to work on a guess:
- When Ohtani had his first Tommy John surgery and only hit in 2019, it was just his second year in MLB. He was 24. And he did not play the first six weeks of that season or the last two. He now is totally familiar with MLB pitching and routine and is fully developed at 29. And Ohtani said Thursday he is swinging at full strength already and the Dodgers expect him to be the everyday DH from the outset of the season.
- The last we saw Ohtani, he hit .304 with 46 homers, 20 steals, eight triples, a 1.066 OPS. That was with doing all the work to make 23 starts. That was with, at some point, a tear in his left elbow. That was without playing the last month of the season. That was with a revolving door of leadoff hitters and Mike Trout not hitting second often enough due to injury in front of him and someone in Anthony Rendon’s uniform often behind him.
So what is possible if you eliminate preparing for 20-something starts? With the elbow tear repaired? With the AL MVP hitting behind the NL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and third-place finisher Freddie Freeman and backed by Will Smith or Teoscar Hernandez or Max Muncy?
“I feel like there is not a small level, but several levels ahead offensive-wise,” Ohtani said.
So what can that mean? Ohtani would have been a top-five MVP finisher last year just based on his offense. Would a fully healthy season in this lineup put 60 homers in play? Forty steals? Fifteen triples?
“That’s a fair question,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “It wasn’t really a factor for us in doing the deal that we did. But I think it definitely applies to base stealing. He will be more active on the bases as a result of not trying to save his legs for pitching. It’s a logical extension to say that it will benefit him offensively that his legs are under him even that much more. But I don’t really know that. But we’re willing to bet that whatever that production level is, it’s gonna be really good.”
In holding off Betts and Freeman to win NL MVP last year, Ronald Acuña Jr. was the first 40/70 (41 homers/73 steals) man. The most steals in a 50-homer season were 24 by Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez. Is that in play? Is 60/30?
Because besides how often they are on base, Freeman (21 steals) and Betts (14) were successful on 35 of 39 steal tries. If the lineup is, as expected, Betts and Freeman hitting 1-2 as they did last year, then they not only might be getting on base 40-plus percent of the time in front of Ohtani to potentially force pitchers to go after Ohtani, but perhaps do so distracted and/or with fastballs because of the on-base speed. In that math, what does 44 homers in 135 games in the Angels lineup while also being a pitcher translate to with the Dodgers?
And that’s before we begin to factor in triples — since, while being a full-time starting pitcher, Ohtani also still has the second-most triples (22) over the last three years (Amed Rosario had 23).
“That [lineup] protection point is going to be fascinating to watch and see how it plays out and how much effect it has or doesn’t have,” Friedman said. “I don’t know what the exact order will be, but just orbiting around Mookie and Freddie has to matter for opposing pitchers. And it will be interesting to see how many more pitches [Ohtani] gets to hit.”
The two-way star is about to be just a hitter. He might not talk about it much — but I have a feeling everyone else will.
