The media’s favorite name performing in the nation’s most-watched event: Not to be cliché, but public bettors are bound to pounce on Travis Kelce props like bees on honey.
Even after a seemingly underwhelming regular season, Kelce has shown his vintage self throughout the playoffs — officially becoming the all-time playoff receptions leader in the AFC Championship game.
All of this has caused some inflation to Kelce’s Super Bowl LVIII props, which should be approached accordingly. There are some markets where it’s worth a look to bank on Kelce’s conversion and others that are too pricey.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl props and predictions
First touchdown scorer (+800, FanDuel)
Part of what makes any Kelce receiving prop attractive is that the 49ers don’t present the strongest secondary he has faced in these playoffs.
If you’re going to roll the dice on him, this is where it’s most worth it.
Patrick Mahomes has completed passes to Kelce on the opening drives of all three playoff games. They all resulted in points.
Kelce has scored the first touchdown of the game in three of the Chiefs’ last six playoff games and he posted the Chiefs’ first touchdown in five of those six.
We know Kelce’s 22.7 percent target share is vital to the Chiefs success. Kansas City hasn’t gone a first quarter without tallying points since the 2021 AFC Championship game.
He’s got solid value here, as Mahomes should look to his favorite weapon when he inevitably sets the pace.
Under 6.5 receptions (+118, FanDuel)
Here’s where things get dicey. Since Super Bowl lines opened, Kelce’s receptions prop jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 and the -144 price on the Over is simply not worth the gamble.
Kelce did just have a monster AFC Championship, catching all 11 of his targets, but that is a big reason why there’s dangling bait on a lofty line. He had seven or more receptions five times in the regular season and only the once thus far in the playoffs.
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Isiah Pacheco has been proving himself as a reliable rushing option as of late. He’s logging 21 carries per game and has hit a minimum of 68 yards in four consecutive games, so his usage should play a big role in the gamescript.
It’s too obvious of a prophecy that Kelce will eat his way to a Chiefs victory. He’ll be good for his big moments, but fading the Over presents an intriguing return.
Over 20.5 yards longest reception (-120, BetMGM)
These big moments are where I like Kelce to come through.
No. 87 is a natural chunk-play manufacturer and he’s primed to take advantage through the middle of the field, no matter what kind of coverage San Francisco uses to mirror him.
Kelce has netted a 21-yard play minimum in each of his three playoff games and seven times throughout the regular season. He averaged 53.9 air yards this season and saw 0.5 deep targets per game — the No. 3 overall rank among tight ends.
San Francisco was the ninth-worst secondary in defending against yards after catch, a department in which Kelce juiced 31.2 yards per game.
Kelce has logged longest catches of at least 21 yards in his last two Super Bowl appearances. He’s a big-time playmaker on the biggest stage; his contributions should come in bulk Sunday.