The Mets were among baseball’s most celebrated teams heading to spring training last year.
There was plenty of star power on the field. Buck Showalter was still the manager, bringing a certain gravitas to the dugout. There was still buzz over a team that had won 101 games the previous season, albeit before an early departure from the playoffs.
Most of that aura has now disappeared, along with the high expectations that surrounded the team.
With less than two weeks remaining before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, you may have to revert to the initial years of the Sandy Alderson-Terry Collins partnership, at least a decade ago, to find a Mets team from which less was expected.
Four of the major gambling apps are in lockstep, setting 82.5 as the Mets’ Over/Under victory total for the coming season.
To a segment of the fan base, that number will seem low.
But there is also a more vocal segment that seems convinced the Mets are no better, if not worse, than last year’s 75-win team that finished fourth in the NL East.
Such are the perceptions from an offseason in which the Mets added complementary pieces instead of stars and looked to fortify the organization’s depth.
But if the Mets play even just slightly above Las Vegas’ projection, they might get to the postseason.
Last year the Marlins and Diamondbacks both reached the playoffs with 84 victories. The D’backs got all the way to the World Series.
We give you five players who provide the Mets with an opportunity to exceed the mediocre expectations.
Luis Severino
The Mets are taking a low-risk gamble on the right-hander hoping he can maintain his health and recapture the magic that elevated him to an All-Star with the Yankees.
In recent years the Mets took a similar approach with pitchers like Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha and Carlos Carrasco (who arrived in the Francisco Lindor trade with Cleveland).
All were previously high-end starters hoping for a rebound. Their results with the Mets were mixed.
But Severino still hasn’t turned 30 (he will hit that milestone during camp), and the Mets are hopeful that by pushing him harder this offseason, he will avoid the spring training injuries that have plagued him in past seasons.
A healthy Severino has the potential to emerge as an ace and change the dynamic of the entire rotation.
Starling Marte
The player the Mets had in right field last season was completely different from the one that helped the team reach the playoffs the previous year.
Incidentally, both were named Starling Marte.
Last year’s version had a minus-0.3 WAR and missed the final two months of the season with groin discomfort.
Marte a year earlier had a 2.9 WAR.
If the Mets can get even the midpoint of the two numbers this season, it would solidify an outfield that is far from imposing on paper, albeit with the potential to be solid defensively.
It also could benefit the Mets to give the 35-year-old Marte occasional turns at DH, allowing him to rest his legs.
Brett Baty
The clamor was overwhelming for the rookie’s arrival last April, following his fast start at Triple-A and Eduardo Escobar’s early struggles.
But Baty appeared overmatched for most of the season, and probably would have benefited from additional seasoning at Syracuse.
He ultimately returned to Syracuse in August before rejoining the Mets for the final month.
But Baty is just 24 years old.
If the Mets receive a significant bump in production from him that matches his pedigree as a first-round draft pick, a lineup that appears one or two bats short as presently constructed will have a different vibe.
Edwin Diaz
The team’s dominant closer is returning, and that should count for something — provided the Mets can give him enough leads to protect.
But in a sense we have to rediscover Diaz, who missed last season after tearing the patellar tendon in his right knee during an on-field celebration at the World Baseball Classic.
If this is still the Diaz who was unhittable in 2022, the Mets will have a chance to overachieve.
Francisco Alvarez
The ball exploded off the rookie’s bat on plenty of occasions last season, but he also finished with a 95 OPS+, suggesting he was below average offensively.
Maybe the question for this season — that could in part determine whether the Mets exceed expectations — is whether the 22-year-old catcher will just continue with steady improvement or if he will leap into stardom.
