Could it be a heavy run scheme from the Chiefs at the Super Bowl?
They certainly have relied on it more than past Patrick-Mahomes-led teams.
During the Chiefs’ three-game playoff run, Isiah Pacheco has logged 63 carries for 254 yards.
He also hit triple digits in Week 13 against Green Bay (110 yards on 18 carries) and Week 18 vs. Cincinnati (130 on 18).
Andy Reid has leaned into a more balanced offensive attack, leveraging Pacheco’s aggressiveness to build sustained drives rather than letting Mahomes create chunk plays.
As a result, Pacheco has rushed for at least 68 yards in four straight games, five of the last six and seven of the last 10.
He even ran for 76 yards on 15 carries in last year’s Super Bowl against a then-dominant Philadelphia defensive line.
Super Bowl LVIII won’t be any different because San Francisco’s rush defense is wildly overvalued. The Niners’ front seven isn’t all that good. It doesn’t generate much pressure on the quarterback outside of Nick Bosa, and, of more importance to this prop, the rush defense is mediocre at best.
The 49ers rank 15th in both rush defense DVOA and Pro Football Focus’ rush grades. They rank 24th in rush success rate allowed and 26th in EPA per rush allowed. The defensive line ranks 29th in power success rate allowed.
In these playoffs alone, Green Bay’s Aaron Jones piled up 108 yards against San Francisco, while Detroit’s David Montgomery went for 93.
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The Niners have allowed 262 total rushing yards across the two playoff games.
You can run the ball on San Francisco, and I’m sure Reid and Pacheco will be more than happy to take advantage.
THE PLAY: Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114, BetRivers)