Betting

Super Bowl 2024 player prop odds: Target Brock Purdy rushing yards

We’ve now seen the 49ers play from behind in the playoffs against both the Packers and Lions.

The Packers blew their lead with 1:11 left and the Lions took a freefall from their commanding halftime lead in the third quarter. 

In both of those play-from-behind efforts, Brock Purdy emerged from the pocket with several scrambles. Against the Lions, the quarterback picked up a couple of chunk plays and finished with 48 rushing yards.

He’s netted an average of 31 yards in the playoffs, which is a conspicuous boost from his 8.9 yards per game throughout the regular season.

What stands out from the regular season is that two of Purdy’s highest scrimmage yard totals came in games the 49ers were trailing and subsequently lost.

His career-high came in the 31-17 loss to the Bengals on Oct. 29, in which he tallied 57 yards on six attempts. 

The following two were for 20 yards against the Steelers, who were No. 6 in blitz percentage, and for 19 yards against the Vikings, who led the NFL. 

Both the Lions and Packers were top-six teams in pressure rate this season. Guess what the Chiefs share with everyone here: Top-seven ranks in both blitzing and pressure rate. 

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy celebrates with the trophy after their win against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024.
Brock Purdy rushed for 48 yards against the Lions. AP

There’s no question we will see an aggressive pass rush from Chris Jones and friends as Kansas City will look to put what many believe to be San Francisco’s weakest link under duress. 

But the truth is Purdy is not the weakest link. All five times he scrambled for positive yardage in the last two games resulted in scoring drives. 


Betting on the NFL?


And lest we overlook Kansas City having yielded 20.1 scrimmage yards to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season — a rate that finished as the eighth-highest. 

Purdy’s line of 11.5 yards for his Super Bowl rushing prop was just eclipsed by both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. The Over offers plenty of exciting value. 

THE PLAY: Purdy Over 11.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)