Texas should be better.
The Longhorns have too much talent to be 1-3 in conference play with losses to West Virginia and UCF.
Max Abmas, Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell alone should carry them to a winning conference record, even if the Big 12 is a gauntlet.
Conversely, Baylor shouldn’t be this good. The Bears have talent, but their early 14-3 record is buoyed by hot shooting. Their interior defense is a mess, the most concerning factor moving forward.
So, I’m buying low on the Longhorns this Saturday, hoping the ‘Horns give their best performance on Forty Acres.
Baylor vs Texas prediction
(12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Bears are a guard-heavy, ball-screen-heavy offense spearheaded by the elite duo of RayJ Dennis and Ja’Kobe Watler. They run more pick-and-roll ball-handler sets than almost anyone, and they’ve been uber-efficient, scoring at the rim and from the perimeter thanks to the duo’s 29 points per game.
However, the Horns have been relatively solid against dribble-drive penetration, ranking top-80 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.69). Abmas, Hunter and Mitchell are three borderline elite perimeter ball-screen defenders who can hang with the Bear guards.
If you stop the Bears’ volcanic ball-screen sets, they’ll devolve into shooters. So far, Baylor has dominated because it’s shooting over 40% from 3, so if the rim isn’t available, the perimeter always is.
But no team can shoot that for an entire season. ShotQuality projects the Bears should be shooting closer to 36% based on the “quality” of attempts, as they’re scoring an unsustainable 1.44 PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, about .34 over expectation.
If Texas stops Baylor’s ball-screen sets, the Bears must shoot their way to a win. If looming shooting regression hits, things could get ugly.
That happened in Baylor’s loss to Kansas State on Tuesday. The Wildcats held Baylor to .55 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP, meaning the Bears had to fall back on 28 3-point attempts. The Regression train pulled into Waco station, and the Bears made only five from downtown (18%), generating a season-low 32.9% effective field goal percentage.
Even worse, the Horns boast an elite rim defense, ranking top-20 nationally in near-proximity shooting allowed. The Bears might fail to produce points at all three levels.
On the other end of the court, Texas runs an interior-based offense predicated on cutters, handoffs, short-rolls and post actions.
Scott Drew runs a no-middle defensive scheme, which usually forces ball-handlers toward the sideline and baseline and keeps offenses away from the rim.
Unfortunately, the Bears’ defense has significantly regressed. They can’t stop the dribble, allowing 33 paint points per game (30th percentile) on a 47% shooting clip (ninth percentile). T
heir short-roll (1.2 PPP allowed, ninth percentile) and cutting defense (1.2 PPP allowed, 27th percentile) have been poverty, so Mitchell and Dylan Disu could eat here.
Baylor’s rim is anyone’s for the taking, and the Horns want to score at point blank – Texas ranks first nationally in at-the-rim PPP (1.36).
Baylor should open as a short favorite on Saturday, but every major predictive analytics site projects Texas as a short home favorite. This game could be a classic case of the wrong team being favored.
Texas beat Baylor in Austin last season, and the Longhorns desperately need a win. Their backs are against the wall after losing three of four, and I expect Rodney Terry’s best effort in an excellent schematic matchup on Saturday afternoon.
It’s also worth mentioning that ranked teams have struggled mightily on the road this season, posting a pathetic 33-57 ATS record. No. 9 Baylor could be in for another tough road loss — the Bears are due for more losses, anyway.
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Baylor vs. Texas pick
Pick: Texas ML (-110, FanDuel)