Some choices are hard. Lobster or crab? Dress for weather or dress for style? Watch football or take a nap? Watch a Batman movie or take a nap? Watch another TikTok or do anything else humanly possible? Any of these things, or take a nap?
Do we build a wild-card weekend DFS roster using the Rams’ passing game or running game, because doing both doesn’t make much sense?
When constructing a daily fantasy roster for NFL slates, correlation between players and games is a primary building block. You normally want a quarterback-receiving combo. It is wise to use someone from the opposite side of that same game. It makes sense to pair a running back with your defense/special teams, etc.
Now, the shorter the slate, the more overlap you get among various correlation ideas, but in general, if you lean into one team’s passing game, you don’t want to also employ the running back from that team.
With a six-game slate for Saturday-Monday DFS contests, we’re not quite at the point when we disregard these corelation boundaries. Thus, we have a decision to make in what we think will be one of the highest-scoring wild-card games: Rams-Lions.
Do we use the Rams passing game (Matthew Stafford plus Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua or some other combo)? Or do we opt for their running game (Kyren Williams)?
There are a few primary components that point use toward the passing game here. 1. Williams ($9,000 at FanDuel) is the most expensive of the Rams options. 2. Since Williams easily has been the most productive this season of the RBs available, and even the highest scoring Flex option on average, we expect his usage rate to be higher than other Rams options. 3. The Lions have been the stingiest defense vs. fantasy RBs all season (at least in PPR, though FanDuel is just half-point).
4. Because he was out the final week and his season has been largely blah compared to expectations, and the explosive rookie season of Nacua, we think Kupp is going to be under-used this week. Plus, Kupp ($7,500) is cheaper than Nacua ($8,000).
And though we like the idea that Baker Mayfield ($7,200) gets to face an Eagles pass defense that has been a turnstile lately, the upside we get with Stafford ($7,400) for a small amount more is too much of a bargain to pass up.
That seals it, we’re using a Rams stack. Decision made. Time for a nap.
Where the wild things are
Josh Allen QB, Bills, vs. Steelers (FanDuel $9,300/Draft Kings $8,000)
Cold and snowy, which is not ideal. But also windy, which is bad. With possible squalls. Yeah, that’s not great either.
Tyreek Hill WR, Dolphins, at Chiefs (FD $9,400/DK $8,700)
Not snowy, but cold. Like, really cold. No, like whatever kind of cold you just thought of, colder than that. Not quite as limiting as what is in Buffalo, but not the kind of weather in which we anticipate a banged-up Miami offense to thrive.
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Isiah Pacheco RB, Chiefs, vs. Dolphins (FD $8,000/DK $6,400)
Miami injuries extend to the defense. Bruising style of Pacheco can be esepcially uncomfortable for defenses the colder it gets, leading to more arm-tackling.
Najee Harris RB, Steelers, at Bills (FD $6,500/DK $5,400)
With both passing games likely grounded, we’ll take whatever is closest to a lead back against a Bills defense that was average vs. the run this year.
Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers, vs. Eagles (FD $7,200/DK $5,800)
Only the Commanders were worse defending the pass this season. Assuming Mayfield plays (we think he will), he should be able to produce beyond his cheap price.
Elijah Moore WR, Browns, at Texans (FD $6,000/DK $4,000)
Though most likely will flock toward Amari Cooper or David Njoku to pair with Joe Flacco, we like Moore’s affordable price point and upside.
Insanity’s Daily Dose
Daily fantasy league lineup suggestion by Drew Loftis:
Team FanDuel
Type: Tourney
Salary: $60K
Fee: $9
Slate: Sat.-Mon.
Top Prize: $20K
Tot. pot: $100K
QB: Matthew Stafford $7,400
RB: Isiah Pacheco $8,000
RB: Najee Harris $6,500
WR: Cooper Kupp $7,500
WR: Elijah Moore $6,000
WR: CeeDee Lamb $10,000
TE: Luke Musgrave $5,100
Flex: Jameson Williams $5,200
DEF: Chiefs $4,000
For late roster changes, follow @NYPost_Loftis on X.
Season risked: $180.44
Season winnings: Drew $106, Jarad Wilk $60