Trump maintains wide lead with Iowa GOP voters as Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis: poll
Former President Donald Trump is well ahead of his Republican competitors in the 2024 Iowa caucuses — but suffered a small dip in support from just last month as contender Nikki Haley picked up some speed before Monday’s vote.
The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers pick Trump as their first choice for president — down from 51% who said the same in December.
Though diminishing, the support could put him on track to cinch the largest margin of victory in a contested Republican Iowa caucus in modern presidential campaign history.
“Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to Caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done. We have to show up,” Trump said on the results.
Former South Carolina Gov. Haley showed up in second place with 20% support in her best showing in the Iowa poll yet, vaulting ahead of Florida Gov. Ron Desantis, who had 16 percent.
The pair seemingly traded places as Haley gained four points and DeSantis lost three.
The Sunshine State governor — once expected to be a toe-to-toe challenger to Trump — has not gained any traction since hitting his ceiling of 19% support in August.
No other candidates scored double digits.
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy came in fourth with 8% support — nearly double what he gained in December. Texas pastor Ryan Binkley and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are both at 1%.
Though the distance between Trump and a second-place contender has narrowed, pollsters found his support base is much more secure: 82% of his voters say they are locked in on him as their first choice.
Haley by comparison is on “shaky ground,” J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll, told the Des Moines Register.
Only 63% of her voters are unwavering in their support, while DeSantis touts a 64% solid base.
The pair will have to duke it out for the 25% of Iowans who said they could still be persuaded, as well as the 7% who have not firmly chosen a first-choice candidate.
Selzer, who is president of the nationally recognized firm Selzer & Co., compared Haley’s results to the final Iowa poll before the 2016 Republican caucus where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz emerged on top despite Trump leading in the preceding polls and ultimately winning the presidential nomination.
“The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,” Selzer said.
The final poll comes in just two days before the high-stakes caucus — which could be severely derailed by intense storms that weather officials warned as “life-threatening.”
The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
