If you’re trying to escape socializing at a New Year’s Eve party, then “Sunday Night Football” is for you.
The Packers head to Minnesota to take on their division rival Vikings just before the ball drops, both holding on to the last bit of hope of the postseason.
The Packers staved off an upset from Carolina last week to remain in playoff contention while the Vikings are free-falling. They’ve lost four of their last five.
Minnesota turns to rookie quarterback Jarren Hall in a must-win game.
Loser gets sent home, playoff dreams crushed. The winner moves to .500 and remains in contention in what is a tight race.
This game is an interesting one for a multitude of reasons.
For one, Hall’s playing throws a wrench into handicapping this Minnesota team from a props perspective.
We saw two drives out of the rookie, who was subsequently knocked out of the game and thus starting the short-lived era of Dobbsanity.
Meanwhile, Green Bay has been in disarray and remains without No. 1 receiver Christian Watson.
When breaking down this game, I look toward a superstar who has had a relatively quiet season.
He’s battled injuries throughout and has played nothing more than a complementary role for most of the season.
Look no further than Packers RB Aaron Jones, who we finally saw burst out against the Panthers.
I am looking to back Jones’ receiving yards in a perfect buy-low spot on Sunday night. In two of the last three, Jones has finished under his current number of 15.5.
But in one of those games, he played just one half of football before being injured.
Since his return, he’s been targeted seven times. Look prior to those three games and Jones finished with more than 15.5 receiving yards in four straight — where he saw five-plus targets each game — and five of six.
One of those games? A four-reception, 17-yard game against the Vikings.
He should get a heavy volume, especially with Watson doubtful yet again, in a matchup where Minnesota has struggled against running backs in the passing game.
In fact, that is one of their main areas of weakness. Despite ranking top 10 in DVOA against the pass, they are down at 22nd against running backs.
In six straight weeks, an opposing running back has finished with 16-plus receiving yards against Minnesota.
In that span, running backs have averaged 7.6 receptions and 46.8 receiving yards per game.
Now that is spread out across all RBs, but Jones will be the primary pass catcher out of the backfield for Green Bay.
The Vikings run zone defense at over an 80 percent rate and blitz over 55 percent of the time, which is an NFL high.
That often leaves the quarterback scrambling and looking to make quick dump-offs. Who is often their safety valve? Running backs.
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Jones has a 1.47 Y/RR against zone coverage and has a 61.8 target% (percentage of targets to snaps).
Even with the return of Jayden Reed, Jones should have a huge day in the passing game, operating as a check-down and even running routes out wide — we’ve seen his explosiveness and ability to create separation.
This is a number that our Action Network projections have closer to 22 receiving yards.
With the season on the line, back Jones to make an impact against this blitz-heavy Vikings defense in the passing game.
He isn’t a stranger to a heavy target share and should pull his weight in the most important game of the year.