The 7-5 Kentucky Wildcats are moderately happy to be playing in the Gator Bowl.
They covered their 6.5-game preseason win total, and explosive running back Ray Davis is playing in the bowl game despite declaring for the NFL Draft.
Surprisingly, 21 of Kentucky’s 22 starters are playing, which is rare in the transfer portal era.
Conversely, Clemson is likely without six starters, including five on defense.
Considering the Tigers’ offense is nothing to fear, the defensive losses are enough to convince me to place a wager with the Wildcats on Friday.
Kentucky vs. Clemson odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Kentucky | +4.5 (-115) | +150 | o44.5 (-110) |
| Clemson | -4.5 (-105) | -185 | u44.5 (-110) |
Kentucky vs .Clemson Prediction
(Noon Eastern, ESPN)
Clemson boasted an elite defense this season, ranking highly in almost every important advanced metric.
Nevertheless, most of the Tigers’ defensive success came against the pass, ranking fourth nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and second in EPA per Pass allowed.
Clemson’s coverage unit was particularly productive, as the Tigers ranked fifth nationally in Pro Football Focus’s coverage grades and second in yards per coverage snap allowed (4.6, tied with Iowa and directly behind Ohio State).
But the secondary will be without three key defensive back starters in the bowl game in cornerbacks Sheridan Jones and Nate Wiggins and safety Andrew Mukuba.
Additionally, decent coverage linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. opted out of the bowl.
Because they’re shorthanded, the Tigers will start two true freshmen at outside corner, Avieon Terrell and Shelton Lewis.
He hasn’t had a great season, but Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary should have some success against Clemson’s young second-stringers.
If Leary can play moderately well against the Tigers, Davis should take care of the rest.
Clemson’s rush defense isn’t that scary. The Tigers rank highly by Rush Success Rate allowed but are prone to allowing big, explosive rushes.
That’s a death sentence against Davis, who picked up more than 700 of his 1,000 rushing yards after contact on 50 missed tackles and 30 10-yard rushes.
On the other side of the rock, I don’t trust Clemson’s offense to do anything.
The Garrett Riley experiment failed.
Clemson starting quarterback Cade Klubnik posted 11 big-time throws to 17 turnover-worthy plays. Starting running back Will Shipley was far less effective than backup Phil Mafa.
The Tigers ranked 128th nationally in Explosiveness and 80th in EPA per Play, and they were awful when getting behind schedule and into Passing Downs.
Kentucky’s secondary is a bit messy, but the Wildcats’ front seven is relatively effective, as they managed to keep most offenses in front of them, never allowing big plays and bearing down on running backs.
The Wildcats’ defense is nothing to write home about, but they’re generally solid and opportunistic, and that should be enough against Klubnik and an anemic Clemson offense.
This will be a low-scoring, defensive grudge match, but the Wildcats are much more capable of creating big chunk plays and scoring against a shorthanded Clemson defense.
Davis and Leary should generate enough offense to keep the game inside the number for 60 minutes, if not win outright.
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Kentucky vs. Clemson pick
Kentucky +4.5 (-115) at BetMGM | Play to +3.5 (-102)