It has been a banner year for ranked non-conference matchups on neutral floors, and that continues on Saturday with Arizona and Florida Atlantic.
Arizona vs. Florida Atlantic (in Las Vegas)
If you quickly peruse Arizona’s game log this season, it might come as a surprise that the Under has paid out more often than the Over (6-4 to the Under). After all, the Wildcats are top-10 offensively across the board (KenPom, EvanMiya, Torvik) and they play at the quickest tempo of any power program.
But books have adjusted and are hanging monster totals, as they did when Arizona played Alabama this week (176.5). An 87-74 win for the Cats in that one is setting the table for the public to get a reasonable total in this one.
The Wildcats and Crimson Tide played at a lightning pace but couldn’t throw it in the ocean.
They shot 12-of-57 (21 percent) from long-range combined.
Had Alabama made one or two more triples, we could have seen lots of fouls and an avalanche of free throws in the final 90 seconds, pushing the game into the 170s. But those bricks have presented a holiday gift in the form of a depressed total here.
Though FAU plays at a much slower pace than Arizona (138th vs. fifth), it can be coaxed into an up-and-down game.
The Owls have scored north of 83 points in seven of their last eight games and lost a thrilling 98-89 decision against Illinois at the Jimmy V Classic.
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So the evidence is there that Dusty May’s team will opt to run and gun when playing a marquee opponent that wants to push the pace. And extra possessions equal more points when you consider FAU’s shooting prowess.
The Owls rank ninth nationally in shooting efficiency and guard Johnell Davis can catch fire from long range (48%) as he did in a 26-point outburst against Texas A&M earlier this season.
Regarding Arizona, I’m encouraged it still can score 80-plus points when it’s having an off night from 3-point land.
The reason for that is that Caleb Love has been getting to the line consistently (14-for-14 in his last two games), and Tommy Lloyd’s system encourages players to take open mid-range jumpers. It’s why all five starters average north of 12 points per game.
I would play this Over all the way up to 166.5.
Recommendation: Over 163.5.
St. John’s at Connecticut
The reason UConn is only laying 11 points at home is because Donovan Clingan is questionable with an ankle injury and the Huskies are coming off their first uninspired effort since January of last season — Wednesday night’s 75-60 loss at Seton Hall.
But I’m happy to buy the dip here on Dan Hurley’s team.
For starters, Hurley is one of the best college basketball coaches to back after a loss.
As a head coach, he’s covered 55.2% of his games following a setback since 2010.
Then there’s the aforementioned Clingan. The kid is a warrior who has played through ankle injuries and chipped teeth before.
He begged to re-enter Wednesday’s game with Seton Hall because he was just starting to put it all together.
Two games ago against Gonzaga, he shot 8-for-11 from the floor and was a force on the offensive glass. And before twisting his ankle against Seton Hall, he had 14 points and seven rebounds in 14 minutes of work.
If he plays, lay the big number with UConn, because St. John’s has feasted on weak opponents in recent weeks and will be out of its depth with a transfer-laden backcourt that has yet to gel.
Recommendation: UConn -11.