Politics

Nikki Haley within striking distance of Trump in NH GOP primary poll

By
Social Links for Josh Christenson
Published Dec. 22, 2023
Updated Dec. 22, 2023, 3:14 p.m. ET

Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley is within four percentage points of her old boss, former President Donald Trump, among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

The American Research Group Inc. survey released Thursday found 33% of likely GOP voters in the Granite State favor Trump while 29% favor Haley — the closest margin any poll of the first-in-the-nation primary has shown in months.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie placed a distant third with 13% support, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (6%), biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (5%) and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (1%).

Of the remainder, 12% said they were undecided and 1% said they would support another candidate.

Among those who said they would definitely turn out to vote Jan. 23, Trump edged Haley by one percentage point, 33% to 32%.

But Trump enjoyed a wider margin among probable primary voters, with 33% preferring the 77-year-old, 18% backing Ramaswamy, 14% for DeSantis, 9% supporting Christie and 8% backing Haley, with 16% of those voters remaining undecided.

Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event at the Lawrence Community Center in Anamosa, Iowa, on Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023.
Nikki Haley is within four percentage points of former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican primary. AP
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally, Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023, in Durham, N.H.
Of likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, 33% favor Trump while 29% favor Haley, an American Research Group Inc. survey found. AP

Trump led Haley by 12 percentage points among registered New Hampshire Republicans (39% to 27%), while Haley led Trump by nine percentage points (33% to 24%) among undeclared voters, who are eligible to participate in the primary.

Those undeclared voters — a higher share than usually reported in previous New Hampshire exit polls, according to ABC News — also were the biggest source of support for Christie, with 23% saying they would back the former Garden State governor.

Haley is also winning among likely voters over the age of 50, with 30% supporting her candidacy and 29% supporting Trump.

Campaign buttons for Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley sit on a table during a campaign event at the Lawrence Community Center in Anamosa, Iowa, on Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023.
Trump is in the lead, with 33% of definite primary voters, but Haley sits just behind at 32%. AP

However, the former president is beating her by 10 percentage points (39% to 29%) among voters 18 to 49.

In a poll where male respondents were slightly overrepresented, 39% of them said they plan to vote for Trump in the primary and 25% plan to vote for Haley.

When women were asked for their vote, Haley came in first with 35% and Trump came in second with 26%.

Christie is the only other candidate to poll in the double digits when voters are divided into categories by age or sex, with 16% of voters age 50 and older backing his candidacy.
Chris Christie is the only other candidate to poll in the double digits when voters are divided into categories by age or sex, with 16% of voters age 50 and older backing his candidacy. Getty Images
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a Meet and Greet at VFW Post 788 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa on Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023.
DeSantis’ support has lagged in New Hampshire as his campaign has focused on winning Iowa. AP

Christie is the only other candidate to poll in the double digits among any of the poll’s subgroups, with 16% of voters 50 and older backing his candidacy, along with 14% of women and 13% of men.

Haley’s candidacy got a boost earlier this month with the endorsement of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Her numbers have also been helped by strong performances in the four Republican presidential debates.

She has also outpolled Trump in hypothetical head-to-head general election matchups with President Biden.

Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy speaks to guests during a campaign stop at the AmericInn on December 19, 2023 in Webster City, Iowa.
Among probable primary voters, 18% prefer Ramaswamy. Getty Images

Meanwhile, DeSantis’ support has lagged in the Granite State as his campaign focuses on winning Iowa, with the candidate having traveled to all 99 counties in the Hawkeye State before the Jan. 15 caucuses.

The American Research Group Inc. survey, which was conducted Dec. 14-20, polled via telephone 600 likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire, including 361 registered GOP voters and 239 undeclared voters.

Its margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.

Asked for comment on the poll, the Trump campaign shared a University of Massachusetts-Lowell survey from Dec. 21 that has the former president ahead of Haley by 30 percentage points.

Earlier this week, however, Haley drew attention to a “negative ad” campaign paid for by Trump’s super PAC, Make America Great Again, Inc., saying the former president was “getting nervous” about her “surge in New Hampshire.”

“It’s clear this is a two-person race between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump,” Haley spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement. “We hope to see him on the debate stage in Iowa.”