Grading the Juan Soto trade and other key Yankees free-agency questions

At long last, Juan Soto is a Yankee.

Here are some questions and answers in the aftermath of the deal:

How would you evaluate the deal and what grades would you give each team?

The Yankees had to pay a steep price — especially considering they are guaranteed only one year of Soto before he hits free agency — but it was a deal they had to make. Of the five players they parted with — Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and Kyle Higashioka in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham — losing King will hurt the most next season and Thorpe may hurt the most in the long run. King, who has two years of team control left, looked like a high-end starter over the final two months of last season and the Yankees were excited to see what that looked like over the course of a full year. But the Yankees were able to deal from their solid upper-level pitching depth without having to touch any of their young position players, which gets them an A-.

The Padres could have waited longer to deal Soto to try to get teams that miss out on Shohei Ohtani more involved and possibly raise the bidding. But doing this now gives them some clarity moving forward in an offseason where they had to slash payroll. The return may be judged against what they gave up for Soto in a trade with the Nationals at the 2022 trade deadline (highlighted by top prospects CJ Abrams and James Wood) but getting four arms that can help them in 2024 helps a lot in one move. They get a B+

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What ultimately pushed this deal across the finish line?

The Yankees did not want to give up King or Thorpe, never mind both. It’s possible they could have tried to play hardball longer and replace one of them with another arm in the deal (i.e. Clarke Schmidt for King or Chase Hampton for Thorpe). But the Padres valued King and Thorpe highly, and once the Yankees agreed to put them both in the deal, it quickly advanced.

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I know Soto will be a free agent after the season. Why don’t the Yankees just sign him to an extension now?

Easier said than done. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, generally prefers his clients go to free agency to make sure they get full-market value. To get Soto to sign an extension now, the Yankees would likely have to blow Soto away with an overpay, bigger than he could imagine getting next offseason.

He turned down a 15-year, $440 million deal, right? So what kind of contract is he going to want from the Yankees?

Huge. Something around $500 million, or perhaps more? It’s not often one of the game’s best hitters — or anyone for that matter — reaches free agency at the age of 26. That will only raise the value for Soto. The average annual value on that offer from the Nationals was “only” $29.3 million.

Aaron Judge got a $40 million AAV last offseason and Ohtani is expected to surpass that this offseason.

Soto doesn’t pitch, but he’s in position to earn more than Judge.

People always talk about Soto as an historic hitter. What do they mean by that?

The description as “the modern-day Ted Williams” might be slight hyperbole, but maybe not by much. Soto’s .421 on-base percentage leads all active hitters and what he has accomplished through his age-24 season (he just turned 25 on Oct. 25) is remarkable — batting .284 with 160 home runs and a 157 OPS-plus, meaning it was 57 percent better than league average. Boras made the point on Wednesday that Soto just finished his age-24 season, which was Judge’s age as a rookie. Heck, Soto is eight months younger than Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman, which is wild to think about.

Ok, we know he can really hit. How concerned should we be about Soto’s defense and baserunning?

They may leave something to be desired. But you absolutely take that with what he brings you offensively. He did have 12 steals last season with the new rules that encouraged action on the bases, so perhaps there is room for growth there. Defensively, the Yankees can stick him in right field at Yankee Stadium and have Alex Verdugo patrol the more spacious left field.

Is it worrisome that Judge will be in center regularly? Or no big deal?

The Yankees say they’re comfortable with it, but their previous actions say that might not actually be the case. Judge enjoys playing center field and has more than held his own there when given the chance — including a steady run during his MVP season in 2022. But the Yankees have been hesitant to use him there too consistently because of the toll it takes on his 6-foot-7, 282-pound frame. They’ll be paying close attention to how he’s holding up throughout the season.

OK, so the Yankees traded King and lost Luis Severino. Let’s say they don’t sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto. What does the rotation look like? It’s Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Schmidt and … who? Someone they sign or trade for?

The Yankees have been in touch with Boras about Frankie Montas, and there is some interest there in a reunion depending on the type of deal — the Yankees would surely prefer a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

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Other options include Brewers ace Corbin Burnes (via trade), Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez or even giving prospect Will Warren a chance to win a job in spring training.

But keep in mind, if the Yankees do land Yamamoto — which is absolutely their goal — they will still likely need to add another starter since Yamamoto is used to getting more rest between starts in Japan instead of being on a five-day schedule.

It feels as if Thorpe really burst onto the scene. How good is the kid?

That may be the key in evaluating how this trade turns out for the Padres a few years down the line. The Yankees loved Thorpe for his pitchability and his swing-and-miss changeup that grades out as one of the best in the minors.

“It’s not like a huge movement-based pitch, it’s a lot of tunneling it through the fastball and hiding it there,” pitching coach Matt Blake said Tuesday at the winter meetings. “And then he’s got a pretty good little slider that he kind of tunnels off that as well. So it’s very much pitchability and deception over raw horsepower, but he’s got a really good idea of how to pitch.”