NFL MVP voters are going to need to seriously consider a second-year pro who was once Mr. Irrelevant.
That’s right, Brock Purdy is now a co-favorite (+300, BetMGM) to win the 2023 NFL MVP award, despite being a complete afterthought coming into the 2022 NFL Draft.
As the Action Network’s Sean Treppedi accurately predicted, the Eagles had boatloads of trouble stopping the passing attack led by Purdy in the 49ers’ 42-19 triumph. He threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns, and saw his MVP odds jump from 16/1 to +300, completely leapfrogging then-favorite Jalen Hurts.
Tied with Purdy is Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who has put up some gaudy numbers against lower-end competition this season.
He is one big win against the Eagles on Sunday away from really solidifying his case and perhaps being the leader entering the final four weeks.
Meanwhile, Hurts has dropped substantially from +140 down to +350 on BetMGM after a blowout loss and another lackluster performance.
But are any of these worth actually betting?
It is hard to see Prescott winning the MVP if the Cowboys don’t win the NFC East, and the Eagles are -450 favorites to win the division.
| 2023 NFL MVP odds |
|---|
| Brock Purdy +300 |
| Dak Prescott +300 |
| Jalen Hurts +350 |
| Patrick Mahomes +650 |
| Lamar Jackson +800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +800 |
| Tyreek Hill 20/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 20/1 |
| CJ Stroud 25/1 |
| Josh Allen 33/1 |
Let’s look further down the odds board where Tyreek Hill could actually be the player to target despite not playing the quarterback.
As one funny X user @iam_johnw put it: “Tyreek Hill is about to have a 2k yard season, but Brock Purdy is gonna win MVP for throwing quick slants and bubble screen to 3 All-Pro players and having a good defense.”
Several of the league’s best quarterbacks are injured or having a down season. This would include Patrick Mahomes, who has next-to-no weapons, aside from Travis Kelce, who hasn’t looked himself either.
The argument for Hill is quite simple: He’s on pace to set the NFL receiving record.
His per-game average is 123.4 yards, giving him a projected total of 2,098 receiving yards, shattering a record held by Calvin Johnson in 2012 (1,964 yards).
Hill is 20/1 to win the MVP on BetMGM and frankly should be closer to 10/1. He’s the best receiver in the game, and a very worthy bet considering Purdy and Prescott aren’t the most appetizing contenders.
Below are the projected stats of the three candidates.
- Brock Purdy: 4,512 passing yards; 33 touchdowns; 9 interceptions; 70.2 percent completion rate
- Dak Prescott: 4,582 passing yards; 37 touchdowns; 9 interceptions; 70.1 percent completion rate
- Tyreek Hill: 2,098 receiving yards; 132 catches; 17 receiving touchdowns
For reference, Here are the last two MVP award winners’ numbers.
Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns (12 INTs) last season, while Aaron Rodgers threw 37 touchdowns in 2021 and 48 in 2020.
Rodgers threw just four interceptions and five interceptions in those seasons, half of what Purdy and Prescott’s projection would represent.
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When looking at this in a serious way, you’re essentially a Prescott bad game against the Eagles away from Hill having the inside track at the NFL MVP award.
THE BET: Tyreek Hill MVP winner 20/1 (BetMGM)