Not long ago he was one of the two hardest-throwing starters in the majors, the kind of guy you figured might just bag a Cy Young award at some point considering the power in his arm.
But the righty, who first came up with such promise in 2015 in New York, had endured so many injuries and such a drop in performance that after his age-29 season he felt compelled to sign a one-year, $13 million free-agent contract with a mega-market NL team as a way to rebuild his value.
So the Mets will hope this version of the story now goes differently for Luis Serverino in 2024 than it did in 2023 for Noah Syndergaard.
Severino reached agreement with the Mets on a one-year, $13 million pact on Wednesday, the same deal the Dodgers gave last offseason to Syndergaard.
The one-year rejuvenation contract feels right at the moment, matching a one-time standout who has fallen with an organization that believes it has tools for a revitalization. The name is famous. The upside is tantalizing. The reward is not often fulfilled, usually because once a player has fallen it is hard to rise again.
Chris Archer received a couple of these, so did James Paxton. The Tigers tried a one-year reunion with Matt Boyd that did not go well last season. I recall well the hope the Yankees once had for Troy Tulowitzki. And the Mets did the broken ex-Yankee guy with upside not long ago when they inked a one-year, $10.5 million free-agent pact that could climb to $13 million with Dellin Betances. How’d that go?
Syndergaard tried to remake himself under the Dodgers pitching machine last year, but was bad, got traded to the Guardians and, after six outings, was released on Aug. 30. He finished with a 6.50 ERA, the sixth worst for any pitcher who made at least 18 starts.
The fifth worst at 6.65 belonged to Severino, who as recently as 2018 still led starters with an average fastball of 97.6 mph; Syndergaard was second at 97.4. Severino still averaged 96.5 mph last year, just below Gerrit Cole at 96.7. That he still throws so hard is what gave the Yankees belief that they could fix him last season.
But Severino could not stay healthy — going on the IL twice, just as he did in 2022 and as he has at least once in every season since 2019. And then he lost his confidence as he was persistently clobbered. His susceptibility to homers rose precipitously, just as his strikeout rate fell. His 8.8 percentage point drop in differential between striking out 27.7 percent of batters in 2022 to 18.9 was the second largest in the majors for pitchers to throw at least 80 innings in each year.
Nevertheless, the Mets feel they have inside info since their new manager, Carlos Mendoza’s time with the Yankees (2009-2023) and story (rise from the minors as a coach to the majors) nearly mirrors Severino’s (signed out of the Dominican in 2011). Mendoza knows that Severino is a good guy and teammate and probably knows he is ready to try to make some adaptations that were not necessary when he could just deliver heated fastballs and sliders pass batter after batter.
Mendoza, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and a new pitching lab and administration will try to find the Severino of 2017 and ’18, when he finished third and ninth, respectively, for the AL Cy Young. Severino does not turn 30 until February. The blessing of the injuries is that he has just 727 ¹/₃ innings on his arm — Cole has thrown 803 ¹/₃ innings over the past four 162-game seasons alone.
Perhaps Severino will benefit from a six-man rotation if the Mets go that way in Kodai Senga’s second season and/or because they add Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Shota Imanaga. At his best, Severino could slot in with Senga and Jose Quintana atop a rotation and start a playoff game if the Mets get there. If the Mets aren’t in the race and Severino is healthy and performing, he would become a trade chip.
The downside is this being a waste of time and 13 million of Steve Cohen’s dollars. Cohen has shown a willingness to invest. The club needs multiple starters. The Mets do not want to add to future payrolls or rosters. So this is a one-year gamble with which they are comfortable. They are not done adding to the rotation. No one should be surprised if there are a few more one-year contracts out there. Maybe another rejuvenation upside play is out there too.
Just for the record, Syndergaard is a free agent again with intentions to try again to rediscover his best self — presumably, though, not in Queens.