There are two schools of thought when it comes to projecting the NFL MVP: team record and individual stats.
You can argue there’s a third factor of consideration and that’s simply being a quarterback, as the honor has gone to a quarterback 19 times in the last 20 years.
Jalen Hurts has steered the Eagles (10-1) to the NFL’s best record through 12 weeks and is the new MVP favorite at +140 at BetMGM.
The dramatic Eagles’ comeback against the Bills last Sunday was added to the shelf, along with victories against the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Chiefs.
Barring another unfathomable Jets upset, the Eagles have a fairly manageable remaining schedule aside from another meeting with Dallas and this week’s NFC Championship Game rematch against the 49ers.
This game should carry major implications on the award, as I believe San Francisco has the most undervalued MVP candidate in Brock Purdy (16/1).
| 2023/24 NFL MVP odds updated |
|---|
| Jalen Hurts +140 |
| Patrick Mahomes +350 |
| Lamar Jackson +500 |
| Tua Tagovailoa +800 |
| Dak Prescott +800 |
| Brock Purdy 16/1 |
| CJ Stroud 18/1 |
| Trevor Lawrence 22/1 |
| Christian McCaffrey 25/1 |
| Josh Allen 30/1 |
Of course, his success has been aided by a comprehensive cast of versatile weapons and a sixth-ranked defense in DVOA. You’re surely good for some wins when you have Christian McCaffrey leading the league in yards and touchdowns, sprawling from your backfield.
But Purdy isn’t just the game manager Jimmy Garroppolo was; he’s been the adhesive to this robust offense with discerning play-making abilities and elusive athleticism.
The 49ers are 7-0 when Purdy doesn’t throw an interception this season. He has been quietly owning several influential stat categories. He leads the NFL in QBR (75.6), passer rating (112.3), and EPA (123).
Purdy is servicing six players with double-digit receiving yards per game, going as high as Bradon Aiyuk’s 88.1 average. He completes 70.2 percent of his passes and gains 9.41 yards per attempt, which are also both league-leading metrics.
Behind Philadelphia, San Francisco is one of five teams with an 8-3 record aside from the Ravens, who sit at 9-3 heading into their bye week.
Baltimore is the only other big circle on the 49ers’ calendar for when Purdy squares off with Lamar Jackson (+500) on Christmas.
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Maybe if Purdy was a highly touted draft pick and not a former “Mr. Irrelevant,” the market would perceive him differently.
Numbers are numbers, and Purdy checks enough boxes to grab shiny value heading down the final stretch.
THE PLAY: Brock Purdy to win MVP (16/1) — BetMGM Sportsbook