One of the biggest projection edges entering this weekend happens to come on “Sunday Night Football.” The Ravens look to hold onto their No. 1 seed in the AFC as they head to Los Angeles for a bout with the Chargers.
Led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are a run-heavy offense. In fact, they run the ball (51.3 percent) more than any other team in the NFL. That’s what happens when you have a dual-threat quarterback and a backfield littered with talented athletes.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s a bruiser like Gus Edwards or an explosive rookie like Keaton Mitchell, this Ravens run game is hard to stop. The Chargers just lost Joey Bosa to the injured reserve last week, too, hurting a defense that already ranks 26th in defensive DVOA against the run.
That brings me to Odell Beckham Jr. and his prop of 41.5 receiving yards on Sunday night. Our Action Lab projections have this closer to 31, a near 17 percent edge in the current market. Beckham is considered a game-time decision with a shoulder injury, though if he plays — he told reporters he is trying his best — it’ll likely come in limited fashion.
Beckham has cleared this number just three times this season. He isn’t a focal point in the offense, rather a complimentary piece. In a game script in which Baltimore is expected to control the clock and be ahead, passing opportunities will come few and far between.
To me, this number is inflated from the loss of Mark Andrews. The tight end is out for the season with an ankle injury, leading to a jump in Beckham’s props — all Ravens receivers, to be honest.
Tack on the fact that it’s a Sunday night prime-time game when everyone is going to be watching and wanting to bet the Overs, and this is a perfect time to fade Beckham.
This isn’t even a great matchup for Beckham either. Though the Chargers defense is anything but scary, they are best against the No. 2 receiver.
Take a look at previous matchups just to see how strong this Chargers defense has been against anyone-but-No. 1 receivers. Against the Lions, Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams finished with sub-20 receiving yards. The same can be said for the Jets’ Allen Lazard.
Want to go even further back? Aside from a 41-yard bomb to Darnell Mooney, no Bears receiver aside from DJ Moore broke 11 yards. Even against the Cowboys, it was CeeDee Lamb (117 yards) torching the Chargers defense, not Michael Gallup (24) or Brandin Cooks (36).
When the Ravens have the football, it’s obvious what they want to do. This is a methodical offense that runs behind a terrific offensive line. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley expects to return on Sunday as well, another boost to an already-dominant rushing attack.
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Then when you dive a bit deeper, you see the Ravens are the sixth-slowest offense when playing with a lead. In the second half, we could see long, successful drives where Jackson rarely drops back — rather he uses the RPO to create havoc and drain the clock. We’ve seen that plenty from the Ravens and Eagles, another excellent rushing attack behind a strong offensive line.
Given Beckham’s injury and the limited snaps that could come out of it, the likelihood of the Ravens keeping the game on the ground and our Action Network projections showing a significant edge in the prop, this is a no-brainer.
Back OBJ to have a quiet day out in L.A.