The Iron Bowl.
It’s one of college football’s best rivalries, and it’s given us an unlimited number of highlights over the years.
Sadly, Auburn’s program is in a funk.
Since Gus Malzahn left town, the Tigers are 17-18-1 combined underneath Bryan Harsin, Cadillac Williams and Hugh Freeze.
Most recently, the Tigers dropped a home game to New Mexico State last Saturday, losing by 21 as 25-point favorites.
Embarrassing.
Alabama’s won the past three editions of this rivalry game by a combined score of 115-62.
However, Auburn also covered three-possession numbers in 2021 and 2022.
I’m betting the Tigers cover again at home.
Alabama vs Auburn prediction
It’s hard to envision Auburn hanging around with Alabama.
The Tide are rolling. Since losing to Texas in Week 2, the Tide have picked up nine straight victories.
Since their gross game against South Florida in Week 3, Alabama’s covered the spread in six of the past seven games, covering the number by an average of 4.9 points.
Jalen Milroe has developed quickly, setting up his beautiful deep balls with his scrambling ability.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has been suffocating, allowing only 12 points per game over the past four weeks.
Even worse, Auburn starting quarterback Payton Thorne, who has a foot injury, is questionable for this one.
All that said, weird things happen in the Iron Bowl.
For example, the home team in this rivalry is 9-2 straight up and 9-1-1 ATS. The Tigers have covered in seven of their past nine meetings with ‘Bama at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Meanwhile, the situational spot screams War Eagle.
The SEC Championship game has already been set, as Alabama will battle Georgia in Atlanta two weeks from Saturday.
I expect Nick Saban to be looking ahead to that game, given it’ll decide Alabama’s entire season. The Tide could come out sleepy in Auburn with that one on deck.
If anything, Saban wants to get in and get out with a win. Go up a few scores early and then take your foot off the gas, running the clock down to triple zeros.
Meanwhile, Auburn is in the ultimate bounce-back spot. After the most embarrassing loss of the season, I expect the Tigers to come out at home with their hair on fire – this is their Super Bowl.
Auburn can still run the football, ranking 16th nationally in Rush Success Rate. The Tigers can still defend the pass, ranking 19th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
If the Tigers can establish the running game while keeping Alabama’s electric deep passing game in front of them, they can shorten this game enough to give them a shot at winning outright. That type of game script heavily favors a two-touchdown dog.
Even better, a rush-heavy Auburn game script offsets the starting quarterback injury. Besides, backup signal-caller Robby Ashford is a better rusher than Thorne, having racked up 220 rushing yards on 40 attempts this year (5.0 YPC).
Ashford pulled this one out of his hat in last year’s Iron Bowl, and I’d love to see him post a repeat performance.
Both Auburn and Alabama want to run the ball in this game, again heavily favoring a big underdog.
One other wrinkle in this game is Auburn’s pass rush. Behind edge rusher Jalen McLeod’s 32 pressures and 18.4% pass-rush win rate, the Tigers rank 17th nationally in pressure rate (33.5%).
If Milroe has a weakness, it’s working under pressure. He’s an elite deep ball thrower, but he struggles with underneath and dump-off routes, so if you get pressure in his face and don’t let his downfield routes develop, you can get to him.
Milroe has a 50.2 Pro Football Focus passing grade under pressure this year, which ranks 65th among 159 qualified quarterbacks. He’s completed only 47% of his passes in a pressured pocket, with six big-time throws to six turnover-worthy plays.
If Auburn’s pass rush can get home, that’ll take away Alabama’s biggest weapon, the deep passing game, while simultaneously forcing the Tide to run the ball more, further shortening the clock.
There is a path for Auburn to keep this game close, and I’m willing to bet on that, especially given the situational spot.
Our Action PRO Model projects the tide as 13-point favorites in this spot, so there is some small value at anything over 14.
If I had to, I’d still play War Eagle at +14
Alabama vs Auburn pick
Auburn +14.5 (-110) at Caesars | Play to +14 (-110)