Two high-profile programs meet on Thanksgiving night as No. 3 Arizona and No. 21 Michigan State headline the inaugural Acrisure Classic in Thousand Palms, Calif.
The Wildcats open as slight favorites in a game that features two completely contrasting identities.
Arizona loves to run and gun and turn each game into a track meet.
The Spartans? They want to slow things down and grind it out in the halfcourt.
Arizona steamrolled lesser competition before taking down Duke in Cameron Indoor, one of the hardest road environments in college hoops.
Just a few days later, the Blue Devils took down Michigan State by nine.
But this game is closer to a coin flip than you might think.
The Spartans are not only extremely deep — they’re 26th in bench minutes — but they boast a top-10 defense in terms of adjusted efficiency, including the second-best two-point defense in the country.
Tyson Walker is the star of the offense and leads Michigan State with 23 points per game.
He missed the team’s last contest against Alcorn State due to an illness, but should return in what I believe was a net positive for Sparty.
His absence forced MSU to play without their primary ball handler and scorer. Walker takes 33.8% of the Spartans’ shots, and while he’s elite at doing so, it can often stagnate the offense.
Without him against Alcorn, players like Tre Holloman, Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears saw expanded roles.
That’s a necessity when the level of competition rises — like it will on Thanksgiving against Arizona.
The Spartans are athletic and can run with the best in transition and slow opponents down.
The frontcourt of Carson Cooper, Mady Sissoko and Malik Hall will be relied upon heavily against this Arizona offense that features a pair of 7-footers in Oumar Ballo and Motiejus Krivas.
Despite the turnover of four starters from last year — Azuolas Tubelis, Kerr Kriisa Courtney Ramey and Cedric Henderson — this team hasn’t missed a beat.
Caleb Love has seamlessly transitioned from North Carolina to Arizona, while Kylan Boswell has made a sophomore-year leap.
The backcourt has combined for 26 points and nearly nine assists per game.
The roster is just as deep as Michigan State’s with a national ranking of 20th in bench minutes.
The Wildcats run transition nearly 15% of the time and have the sixth-lowest possession length in college hoops (14.2 seconds).
While they have shot from beyond the arc well, they like to attack the rim more often than not. But their speedy nature leaves them prone to plenty of turnovers, too.
It’s been an impressive start for coach Tommy Lloyd’s bunch nonetheless, something you can’t say about Tom Izzo and the Spartans. Arizona has yet to lose, has hung 97-plus points in all but one game and rank top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
In the Duke game, Arizona turned the ball over 17 times. If it weren’t for the Wildcats’ success at the rim and 15 offensive rebounds, the result could have been flipped.
A big factor in this matchup could be how Michigan State shoots from the perimeter.
Sparty is connecting on just 26.3% of looks from three-point range — 312th in the country — but based on ShotQuality data, positive regression is on the horizon. The looks have been efficient and open.
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Not to mention that MSU loves to run the pick and roll (about 20% of possessions), an area where Arizona ranks in the high 100s defensively.
That is where Sparty can excel – using Walker in the two-man game to set up catch-and-shoot 3s, create his own shot, or find Cooper, Hall or Sissoko rolling.
MSU is 46th from a SQ PPP perspective in catch-and-shoot 3s despite shooting just 26.3% from the perimeter.
It’s ugly, I know. While Arizona has the easier travel out West, I do see this game closer to a coin flip. I expect Wildcats money to pour in early and drive this number up, so be patient here. I would back Sparty at +3 or better.
Pick: Michigan State +4.5