Washington is vulnerable.
Michael Penix’s Huskies haven’t looked like themselves in recent weeks, going 1-4 against the spread over the past five.
And they end up in Corvallis this week where Oregon State is 17-1 against the spread over the past three seasons.
This is a tough matchup for the Huskies because of their porous rush defense — they rank sub-120th in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.
The Beavers boast one of the nation’s best offensive lines, which opens massive running lanes for dynamic lead back Damien Martinez.
The Beavers rank third nationally in Rush Success Rate and eighth in EPA per Rush.
Oregon State is a good football team, sitting at 8-2 and No. 11 in the CFP Rankings for a reason. Washington is playing its worst football of the season, and this is a nightmare matchup and situational spot.
The pick: Oregon State -2.5.
ARMY (+3.5) over Coastal Carolina
This game means nothing to the Chanticleers.
It’s a non-conference matchup two weeks after they reached bowl eligibility and the week before their biggest game of the season, a home bout against James Madison that could decide the Sun Belt East.
The Chants probably rest guys battling injury.
Most notably, starting quarterback Grayson McCall and backup Jarrett Guest are out, meaning they will be starting their third-string quarterback.
Army’s defense is a mess, but I doubt Coastal will move the ball that efficiently.
Conversely, Army’s triple-option should exploit Coastal’s horrific rush defense. The Chants rank sub-100th nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed.
The Knights can sustain long drives, control the time of possession and drain the clock as four-point home ‘dogs in a sluggish game.
For what it’s worth, as a three-or-more point underdog, Army is 28-13-1 ATS under current head coach Jeff Monken.
STANFORD (+6.5) over California
This is a good letdown spot for Cal after its biggest win of the season last week, an exhilarating 42-39 home victory over Washington State, the Golden Bears’ first win since September. Meanwhile, Stanford should bounce back after getting crushed by Oregon State in Corvallis last week.
Before that 62-17 obliteration, Stanford was playing better, posting a 3-1 ATS record in the four prior weeks, including a three-point loss to Colorado as 13.5-point ’dogs and a nine-point loss to Washington as 27.5-point dogs.
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The most notable result was a three-point road win over Washington State. If Cal beat Wazzu by three at home, and Stanford beat Wazzu by three on the road, then Cal and Stanford should be power rated closely.
Stanford went through a complete rebuild in the past offseason, with former Sacramento State head coach Troy Taylor taking over a gutted program. He’s a good coach, so it makes sense that he’d have an entirely new team playing their best late in the season.
Our Action Network PRO Model projects Stanford as only a five-point underdog here, so there’s some value with the undervalued Tree in a favorable situational spot.
Last week: 0-2. Kentucky (L), Arizona (L)
2023 season: 13-17.