The Arkansas State Red Wolves continued this column’s hot streak with a backdoor cover against South Alabama last weekend.
We’ve now got to the window three weeks in a row.
Things have been going especially well of late as we’re 7-1-1 in our last nine and 7-3-1 for the season.
It rarely goes this swimmingly, so we may as well take a moment to soak it all in.
Now that we’ve done that, we can turn the page to Saturday when we’ll be keeping things local with a play on Rutgers as a three-score pooch (+20.5) against No. 12 Penn State.
Two things can be true of the Nittany Lions this year: They’re one of the best teams in the country, but they’ve also had a disappointing campaign in 2023.
That may sound a bit harsh considering they’re 8-2 and their only losses came against Michigan and Ohio State, but this was supposed to be the season in which Penn State finally broke through in the Big Ten.
Expectations were sky high and a 6-0 start seemed to validate the opinions of a lot of punters that the Nittany Lions were a legitimate threat to make the College Football Playoff.
There was still hope for Penn State after their loss to Ohio State on Oct. 21.
If the Nittany Lions could have found a way to beat Michigan, they would have put themselves right back in the mix.
But that just wasn’t meant to be and now Penn State must pick itself right back up and prepare for a showdown with Rutgers at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
This is a classic letdown spot for a team that had national title aspirations just a few days ago.
And it’s not just the spot that makes Rutgers an appealing underdog on Saturday.
There are plenty of other signals in this handicap that point to the Scarlet Knights putting up a decent fight.
For one, Rutgers is a respectable defensive outfit and is one of the best teams in the country at preventing explosive plays.
For a team to cover a 20.5-point spread they’ll likely need to break off a handful of big plays, but that isn’t in Penn State’s DNA.
Despite some early Heisman hype surrounding quarterback Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions are not an explosive offense and it’s unlikely they’ll have find way against the Scarlet Knights, who rank 13th in the country in yards per play allowed.
Penn State’s defense is one of the best units in the entire country and it’ll be tough sledding when Rutgers has the ball, but it likely won’t take a crooked number for the Scarlet Knights to get us to the window.
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It’s never a bad idea to back a big underdog in a game with a low total — the Over/Under is currently sitting at 41.5 points — and it becomes an even more attractive proposition when both offenses want to run the ball.
Rutgers ranks ninth in the country in rush rate, while Penn State keeps the ball on the ground more than 50 percent of the time.
Perhaps Penn State decides to open up the playbook a bit and lets Allar do his thing now that the team has fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, but I trust that this Rutgers defense will have enough answers to keep this game respectable even if that does happen.
Penn State’s season is over and that makes it a great fade candidate as a huge favorite on Saturday.