How Joe Manchin may cause ‘mischief’ with 2024 White House run
Outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is putting out feelers about a late run for the White House and may sway voters from both major parties if he decides to get into the race, veteran campaign watchers told The Post Friday.
The 76-year-old moderate Democrat announced Thursday he would not be seeking re-election to the Senate, and would instead embark on a tour of the US “to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”
The vague rhetoric and Manchin’s previous refusal to rule out running for higher office has set tongues wagging, though the senator’s team was tight-lipped about his plans when The Post inquired Friday.
“I’m certain he’s floating the trial balloon to see if anybody would bite,” said GOP strategist John Thomas, who added that Manchin was all but “forced out” of his Senate seat by the prospect of defeat next year at the hands of popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice.
“He had no choice but to resign unless he wanted to march to his own death,” Thomas said. “So that’s one thing that animates that decision. Then the second is, while he’s being forced out, you know, every senator would like to be president if they could.”
The chances of Manchin following in the footsteps of Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination are slim to none, since the deadline to register for the primary ballot in the early states of Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina has already passed.
But Manchin, who has repeatedly voiced his belief in “putting country before party,” may have better luck launching an independent bid.
“If he can feel that there’s enough traction for him,” the senator may toss his name in “if only to shake things up,” Republican strategist Dave Wilson told The Post, saying Manchin “could definitely start pulling votes away from both” Republican and Democratic candidates.
Manchin’s longtime relationship with centrist group No Labels, which is looking to put forward a third-party candidate against Biden and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, has also driven speculation of an impending announcement.
“All they’re asking for is, ‘Do the citizens of the United States want some other options?’” Manchin said of No Labels this past August. A month earlier, the Democrat had co-headlined a No Labels event with former Republican Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire.
No Labels has said it will announce its candidate in April, and is working on getting that person on the ballot in all 50 states.
If Manchin runs as an independent — especially if he’s backed by No Labels — he “would probably get enough votes to cause a lot of mischief,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said.
“He will have an impact on the race because it looks to be a very close presidential race. And if he has the backing of No Labels and their money, and their ballot access, I think he probably is more likely to have a national impact as an independent than Robert Kennedy Jr.,” Bannon added, noting Manchin “bears a close watch.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West are already creating headaches for the national parties with their independent runs and more non-affiliated candidates would only add to the electoral chaos.
“This really is going to end up skewing the electoral math for both sides, because you could have a fairly long ballot of truly viable candidates on Election Day,” Wilson said.
The number of confirmed and prospective independent candidates is another hurdle for Biden to overcome, Thomas argued.
A large independent list is “an echo chamber of ‘Anybody but the incumbent,’ as though there’s a problem with the incumbent,” he said.
“I think this scenario is Biden’s biggest problem. He needs everybody to get in lockstep and unite around one thing, which is not-Trump.”
