Am I a glutton for punishment? Possibly.
The Arizona Wildcats are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and burned me when I faded them in this column last week.
However, I’m betting against the Wildcats again and backing UCLA -2.5 (bet365) on Saturday night.
Arizona, coming off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents, could be due for a letdown after last week’s emotional victory over Oregon State.
Conversely, UCLA turned the ball over four times in its win over Colorado and will be motivated to get back on track and prove it’s a better college football team than that performance indicated.
The Wildcats are averaging 441 yards and 31 points per game, and have found new life since Noah Fifita took over at quarterback. However, after scoring more than 40 points in consecutive games against USC and Washington State, Arizona was limited to just 27 last week by a strong Oregon State defense.
UCLA’s defense will be another step up in class.
The Bruins are giving up just 277 yards and 15 points per game, both of which rank first in the Pac-12. UCLA has held opponents to 17 points or less in seven of its eight games and also leads the Pac-12 with 31 sacks.
In a small sample, Fifita has looked good for Arizona, but UCLA’s defense gets after the quarterback and creates a ton of havoc. That’s rarely a favorable matchup for a freshman quarterback.
Offensively, UCLA averages 30 points per game while utilizing a balanced attack that averages 251 yards through the air and 215 on the ground.
Freshman quarterback Dante Moore started five games this season, but junior Ethan Garbers has started the past two, throwing for 509 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.
Interceptions haunted Moore early in the season, and if Garbers can protect the ball – something UCLA’s offense needs to do as a whole after last week’s four-turnover performance – the Bruins should move the ball against an Arizona defense that gives up almost 350 yards per game.
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In Carson Steele and TJ Harden, UCLA boasts two of the Pac-12’s top-10 rushers, both of whom are averaging more than five yards per carry. Steele has tallied 674 yards and six touchdowns, while Harden has rushed for 466 yards and five touchdowns.
The Bruins have flown a bit under the radar this season in a loaded Pac-12, but this is a really good football team that has won three of its past four games.
Arizona is tough at home, but UCLA’s offense can play much better than it did last week and its defense will provide Arizona’s offense with the stiffest test it has faced this season.
Don’t let Arizona’s ATS record scare you. Back the Bruins in Tucson on Saturday night.
Best Bet: UCLA -2.5 (bet365); play to -3