Northern Illinois’ Mid-American road matchup against Central Michigan on Tuesday night offers several advantages that bode well for the Huskies.
Their rushing attack has been a strength this season, with 54 percent of their offensive plays staying on the ground.
Antario Brown averages an impressive 5.9 yards per carry.
While he encountered struggles against some of the MAC’s tougher front sevens, Central Michigan’s below-average run defense offers a promising matchup.
The Chippewas rank 119th in stuff rate, 118th in defensive line yards and 115th in EPA/Rush allowed.
In a 24-17 loss to Ball State in Week 8, they surrendered 243 rushing yards to a team that entered that game outside the top 100 in almost every rushing metric.
Northern Illinois quarterback Rocky Lombardi’s overall season numbers might not be stellar, but much of his poor play came in non-conference play.
In five MAC games, he has shown improvement in almost every statistical category.
On the other side, Central Michigan’s Jase Bauer has really struggled.
He ranks low in EPA (116th) and completion percentage (109th) among FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
This is concerning, especially when trying to attack Northern Illinois’ defense.
In contrast, Central Michigan is averaging just 3.5 yards per rushing attempt.
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The Huskies’ front seven has been impressive, allowing just 4.3 yards per carry and ranking 53rd in EPA/Rush allowed.
This line has moved from Northern Illinois -3 to -5.5 at most sportsbooks.
All three of our projection models indicate value on the Huskies even at this price.
The Play: Northern Illinois -5.5