We have some Pac-12 after-dark action in the desert Saturday as No. 11 Oregon State visits Arizona.
The Wildcats have covered the spread in three straight games and will be playing in front of a raucous home crowd for the first time since Sept. 30, but I’m still fading Arizona.
The Beavers have also covered in three straight games.
Although this is a matchup of contrasting styles, both teams are coming off bye weeks with extra time to prepare.
This is not a knock on Jedd Fisch, who has things trending in the right direction in Tucson, but Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith is one of the most underrated coaches in the country.
With extra time to prep, I love backing him here.
Yes, I’m backing Oregon State (-3.5) on the road.
Defensively, these teams have performed relatively similar. However, I trust Oregon State’s rushing attack to control this game.
Oregon State vs. Arizona Odds (BetMGM)
- Spread: Oregon State -3.5
- Total: 56.5
- Moneyline: Oregon State -165; Arizona +140
Damien Martinez leads the Pac-12 with 676 rushing yards and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
Additionally, Deshaun Fenwick ranks 11th in the conference with 382 yards and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
Arizona’s defense has fared well against the run, but Oregon State has run for more than 190 yards in five of its seven games.
Arizona might limit Oregon State a bit, but I’m not sure it’ll be able to completely neutralize the Beavers’ rushing attack.
Additionally, Oregon State quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei seems to be finding his rhythm.
The Clemson transfer has thrown for 541 yards and seven touchdowns (zero interceptions) over the past two games and is reminding people why he was a five-star recruit coming out of high school.
Defense and physicality travel and the Beavers excel at both.
Oregon State doesn’t play the same uptempo style that so many teams in this conference do, which is why the Beavers often cause trouble for opponents and are 5-3 against the spread on the road over the past two seasons.
As much as I love Oregon State, Arizona’s 44-6 thrashing of Washington State two weeks ago was certainly eye-opening.
The Beavers are surrendering just 220 passing yards per game (fourth in the Pac-12), but Arizona’s prolific attack will test that.
It remains to be seen who will start at quarterback for Arizona, but both Noah Fifita and Jayden de Laura have had success this season.
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Fifita, who took over when de Laura hurt his ankle, has thrown for 842 yards and eight touchdowns over the past three games. He’s also thrown a pair of interceptions.
Meanwhile, de Laura threw for 1,069 yards and nine touchdowns over the first four games, but also threw five interceptions and has been turnover-prone throughout his career.
The best way to take a rowdy crowd out of the game is to consistently run the ball and drain the energy out of the stadium. Oregon State has the tools to do that, and I believe they will Saturday night.
The Play: Oregon State -3.5.