After a scintillating Saturday with six top-25 matchups, college football is keeping the hits coming with a weekend slate featuring four more ranked head-to-heads.
This week I’ll be double dipping in ACC country and forecasting a shootout on the Forty Acres.
Virginia at Boston College
BC -3.5
The Eagles may be 1-3 on the season, but they have provided their fan base with plenty of hope.
They nearly upset Florida State and have a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in UCF transfer Thomas Castellanos.
Castellanos was thrust into action in the opener and has given the Eagles offense pop for the first time in years.
For perspective, the Eagles finished 122nd in scoring, 121st in total offense, and 90th in plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage last season.
With Castellanos at the helm, the Eagles’ rushing attack is humming (25th in explosives) and their offensive line is limiting negative plays (28th in HAVOC allowed).
Among quarterbacks, Castellanos ranks third nationally in rushing with 280 yards in 3¹/₂ games.
The missing ingredient for BC is generating turnovers and Virginia is extremely turnover-prone.
The Wahoos are also in the midst of a quarterback change from true freshman Anthony Colandrea (six interceptions) to Tony Muskett, who looked completely overwhelmed in the opener (7.8 QBR, four sacks).
Given UVA’s turnover issues, a burgeoning quarterback controversy, and its inconsistency on offense (130th success rate), this is a rare moment where Boston College is a sharp play as a favorite.
Kansas at Texas
Over 61.5
Scorching temperatures (95 degrees), defenses that consistently surrender the big play (both 90th or worse), and a pair of super-efficient quarterbacks (both top 20 in QBR) are set to collide in Austin on Saturday afternoon.
The lone drawback between these two Big 12 programs is their preferred pace.
Both Texas and Kansas average roughly 67 offensive snaps per game, which places them in the mid-80s nationally.
But that’s baked into this total, which is five points below my projection of 66.5 points.
Texas has scored 30+ points in six of Quinn Ewers’ last seven starts, while Kansas has found comparable success, reaching the 30-point mark in five of Jalon Daniels’ last seven starts.
And to hit an over north of 60 points, you want to ride with teams that finish drives with points, preferably touchdowns.
Kansas has been wildly effective in the red zone, ranking 11th nationally with scores on 19 of their 20 trips (15 touchdowns, four field goals).
The Longhorns have left points on the board when they’ve driven inside opponents 20, but lucky for this over, the Jayhawks sport the nation’s worst red-zone defense (14-for-14, 10 touchdowns).
I would play this total up to 65 and bank on an old-school Big 12 shootout.
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech -21
Bowling Green is on white flag watch.
The Falcons are 1-3 and are coming off a 31-point conference loss to Ohio.
Scot Loeffler’s seat is now red hot, as he enters Saturday with a 14–32 record.
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At the betting window, Bowling Green is the worst MAC school on the road (8-15 ATS) since Loeffler arrived.
Making matters worse is that the Falcons offense is a train wreck (115th success rate) and opposing defenses are terrorizing quarterback Connor Bazelak (120th in HAVOC allowed).
Haynes King has been a revelation for the Yellow Jackets (320 yards per game, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions).
Georgia Tech needs this game to stay on track for six wins and bowl eligibility, so I doubt it would look past the lowly Falcons.
I would lay up to four touchdowns.