The Phillies continue their march to the MLB postseason when they travel to San Diego to take on the Padres.
On the mound for Philadelphia will be Michael Lorenzen (8-8, 3.73 ERA), while the Padres will give the ball to Pedro Avila (0-2, 2.67 ERA).
Lorenzen has pitched well overall this season, but he’s been hit pretty hard over his last three starts.
In those three outings, he’s given up 24 hits and 15 runs in 15 innings of work.
\Phillies vs. Padres prediction
(9:40 p.m. ET., MLB Network)
The Phillies haven’t been profitable with Lorenzen on the mound, going 6-10 in his last 16 starts.
Avila has started three games this season and pitched well in two of them.
He’s given up just one run in two of his three starts, but Avila is typically used as a relief pitcher, so don’t expect him to go deep into the game.
He hasn’t pitched more than 4 ²/₃ innings in any game this season.
Both pitchers have respectable ERAs, but some runs should be scored on Tuesday night.
All three of Avila’s starts have produced at least nine runs, while Lorenzen’s last three outings have gone over the total with an average of 16 runs scored.
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Heading into Monday’s matchup, eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams had gone over, including six straight.
I expect these recent trends to continue on Tuesday night with another game going over the total.
THE PLAY: Phillies-Padres Over 9 runs (-110, Caesars)