There’s no better way to bring back our weekly college football “Ugly Underdog” column than with a bet on every gambler’s favorite team: The UMass Minutemen.
But this isn’t your older brother’s UMass.
No sir, this looks like a reinvigorated Minutemen team that actually has potential to win more than one game for the first time since 2018.
In fact, UMass is already 1-0 after a famous 41-30 victory at New Mexico State last weekend.
The Minutemen ended a 24-game road losing streak and already are halfway to cashing the over on their season win total for 2023.
UMass will now take all the momentum it built up in Las Cruces and head to the Plains to take on Auburn in Hugh Freeze’s debut as the Tigers’ coach on Saturday.
It’s the first game of the season for War Eagle and expectations are pretty high after three straight disappointing years, so you can expect a rollicking atmosphere even if it’s only UMass making a trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium.
It’s pretty easy to make a case for Auburn to blow out the Minutemen in this spot.
They’re an SEC team. They’re at home. UMass has been the worst team in FBS for the past decade. The talent gap is massive.
But if you dig a little deeper, you can see a path to a cover for the Minutemen, who are currently 35.5-point underdogs at BetMGM.
First of all, the Tigers will be adjusting to a new coaching staff and their quarterback, Payton Thorne, will be making his debut after spending the last four years at Michigan State.
Thorne should have no issues carving up UMass, but there’s certainly a chance it takes a drive or two for Thorne to get his bearings with his new team.
And with a spread this large, that’s an open door.
Another signal pointing to a UMass cover here is that Auburn likely will tread lightly if it builds a big lead in the second half.
The Tigers will want to get Thorne reps and get the starters used to Freeze’s system, but they are also likely to rotate heavily to keep players fresh for a cross-country trip to Cal next weekend and a long season ahead.
Freeze won’t want to lose any players to injuries in Week 1 against UMass.
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But the most encouraging sign for UMass backers — and the program in general — is that the team has legitimate Division I talent at quarterback.
The pride of Bridgeport, Conn., Taisun Phommachanh, was recruited to play at Clemson and then transferred to Georgia Tech before returning to the Northeast to run the offense at UMass.
Phommachanh was all action against New Mexico State, going 10-for-17 for 192 yards and tacking on 96 more, plus a touchdown, on the ground.
With Phommachanh under center, the Minutemen have a legitimate chance to get on the board a couple of times in this matchup, but his ability to extend plays will also help UMass extend drives long enough to eat up some clock — which is a huge part of covering a spread this high.
If you’ve been in the trenches betting college football over the past five years you probably have a hard-and-fast rule: Never bet on UMass, no matter how high the spread gets.
But rules are meant to be broken and I see no better way to spend a Saturday afternoon than rooting on the Minutemen as they try to stay within five scores of Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Take a shot with UMass at +35 or better.